February 9, 2024
[Repost] The Threat of Military Invasion by a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council
February 8, 2022
The following is an excerpt from “What Should We Learn from the Ukraine Crisis?”, an article by Satoshi Sakakibara, deputy chair of the editorial board, published in today’s Sankei Shimbun.
The article confirms that my observations about the United Nations were on the mark.
It is essential reading for people in Japan and around the world.
The emphasis in the text is mine.

Russia has deployed a large force near the Ukrainian border and is making a show of holding one military exercise after another.
A permanent member of the United Nations Security Council is threatening a military invasion.
Its aim is to change the status quo by force, a reminder that the world is still a jungle where the strong prey on the weak.
The outcome of the crisis remains uncertain, but Japan would be dangerously complacent if it treated the crisis as a distant conflict and did little more than sympathize with Ukraine.
Japan and Ukraine are both victims of Russia’s illegal occupation of their territory, the Northern Territories in Japan’s case and Crimea in Ukraine’s.
Ukraine now faces the threat of a military invasion.
Japan must stand up for Ukraine.
If Japan fails to do so, it will struggle to rally international support over the Northern Territories dispute.
It would be particularly unacceptable for Japan’s prime minister or foreign minister to grin, shake hands with President Vladimir Putin, and move toward accommodation.
The issue extends well beyond the Northern Territories.
Japan should use this opportunity to draw lessons from the Ukraine crisis and resolve to prepare for a Taiwan crisis that could arise in the near future.
It has once again become clear that the United Nations cannot be relied upon to deal with military intimidation or aggression by China and Russia, both permanent members of the Security Council.
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which share a long land border, differ in nature from those between China and Taiwan, which face each other across a strait.
Even so, China is surely studying the tactics Russia is using to pursue its aims while signaling that it is prepared to use military force.
Japan, which must deter China as it prepares for a possible Taiwan crisis and other contingencies, has even more to learn from the Ukraine crisis than China does.
In response to requests from Ukraine, which is at a military disadvantage, the United States and Britain have moved to supply it with weapons.
This helps deter a military invasion.
Germany, the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter, fobbed Ukraine off with an offer of 5,000 helmets.
Given Japan’s geography, a Taiwan contingency would almost certainly become a contingency for Japan as well.
In a Taiwan crisis, Japan would be far more directly involved than Germany is in the Ukraine crisis and would itself be a party to the crisis.
Japan should consider in advance what forms of support could help prevent the Chinese military from taking control of Taiwan, including the provision of weapons.
Above all, what the Japanese people should learn from the Ukraine crisis is the resolve of Ukrainians who volunteer to defend their homeland.