Foreign Minister Qin Gang dismissed for opposing the plan?

The following is from Edward Luttwak’s regular column in today’s Sankei Shimbun.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide.

The Xi Regime Prepares to Invade Taiwan
Experts in the financial industry are not necessarily well-versed in foreign policy and security issues.
Recently, however, I discussed with several financial experts and was shocked to learn that their analysis of a particular issue was consistent with mine.　
Their analysis was that China’s Xi Jinping regime plans to conduct military operations in the Taiwan Strait.
I have already provided my analysis to the U.S. Department of Defense.
While I cannot be definitive about the timing, China considers the period during which the war in Ukraine continues to be ongoing as a possible period for military operations.　
There is momentum for a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine; in this sense, Chinese military action could be imminent.　
One of the main reasons for this is that, as we pointed out in a previous issue of this column, China is abandoning its “return to cultivation,” a forest conservation and protection policy that it has pursued for more than two decades, and is pushing ahead more rapidly than before with its “return to cultivation” policy of converting available land, including forests, into cultivated land to increase food production.　
The Chinese authorities have instructed these lands to produce wheat, rice, and soybeans.
Many farmers have been ordered to stop producing vegetables and switch to grains.　
These are foods for the siege, so to speak.
These measures were taken in anticipation of the disruption of grain imports from North America and other countries due to economic sanctions following China’s invasion of Taiwan.
Imports of live cattle are also increasing.
Recent poultry imports are on an unprecedented scale.

Foreign Minister Qin Gang dismissed for opposing the plan?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has formulated a concrete plan for the armed unification of Taiwan.
Xi also drew a lesson from Russia’s actions regarding its invasion of Ukraine, where Russia’s actions did not lead to a nuclear war with the United States but only to a localized limited war using conventional forces.　
In invading Taiwan, China should limit the battlefield to the area around the Taiwan Strait to prevent the spread of warfare.
It may intercept aircraft and ships launched from U.S. bases in Yokosuka and Okinawa, but it is unlikely to attack the U.S. bases themselves.　
What does Mr. Xi hope to gain by launching a limited war on Taiwan?
He wants to show the world that there is a “rejuvenated and reinvigorated China” with a new generation of Chinese military officers that he has created.　
Xi seems to assume that Chinese forces invading Taiwan, even if they encounter resistance from Taiwanese forces or clashes with U.S. forces, will be able to quickly capture Taiwan by making full use of the overthrow of the regime by Taiwan’s military and some of its intelligence agencies that are inside China.
When Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 1996, she was advised by those around her to remove from high-ranking military positions all those from mainland China who might have been entangled with China. Still, she rejected the advice because it might stir up political conflict.
But this was a big mistake.　
Although it is unclear how many Chinese insiders are in Taiwan, it should be recalled that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always used internal maneuvering to weaken its enemies since the days of the Sino-Chinese Civil War.
On the other hand, if, despite China’s intentions, the Taiwan contingency is prolonged, the impact on the global economy will be immeasurable.
First, supply chains from China would be disrupted, causing severe inflation.
Global stock markets would plummet.　
The world’s major manufacturing companies are diversifying their production bases to break away from dependence on China. For example, even if 97% of the components for a certain electrical appliance are produced in Vietnam or India, if only 3% of the remaining parts are made in China, the product will not be completed and cannot be shipped.　
Considering that the Taiwan contingency will inevitably negatively impact the Chinese economy as well, Xi is less interested in making China a prosperous country.
What Xi is aiming for is to turn China into a young fighting nation.　
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was dismissed from his post in July because Mr. Qin learned of Mr. Xi’s plan to invade Taiwan and opposed it.
That is not surprising.
Mr. Xi’s plan lacks strategy.
He is pursuing revitalizing China as a nation from a historical and cultural perspective.　
He makes weekly speeches in various parts of China, urging the world to “get ready for battle,” but the world is indifferent.
It is a problematic situation.