In a 2016 Newsweek article, Professor Kerry Brown argues that the most dangerous and enduring fault line in Asia is not North Korea, South Asia, or the South China Sea, but the historical relationship between China and Japan. By examining 1,500 years of regional rivalry, this essay exposes the shallow moralism of Japanese media narratives and presents a clear-eyed assessment of Asia’s true geopolitical risk.

2016-09-08
The following is an excerpt from an article titled “Asia’s Greatest Crisis: Sino-Japanese Relations,” published on page 10 of the September 13 issue of Newsweek, written by Professor Kerry Brown of King’s College London.
This essay proves that, in direct contrast to the hollow moralism long propagated by the Asahi Shimbun and its like-minded cultural elites—who have consistently misled and diminished the nation—it accurately identifies the underlying reality.

Asia’s Greatest Crisis: Sino-Japanese Relations

Which state relationship in Asia is the most alarming today.
Where is the risk of armed conflict the highest.
North Korea, pursuing nuclear development.
Pakistan and India, locked in persistent tension.
China’s clashes with neighboring countries in the South China Sea.
Or a direct confrontation between the United States and China as an extension of these conflicts.

All of these are unquestionably serious problems.
Yet when history is reviewed, the most dangerous relationship in Asia, sustained over the longest period, is that between China and Japan.
Sino-Japanese relations are extraordinarily complex, but when distilled, the issue can be reduced to a single question.
Can two nations that have argued at every turn avoid conflict now that both have become global powers.

History shows that they cannot.
According to The Chinese Empire and the Empire of the Rising Sun, a new book on the history of Sino-Japanese relations by Professor June Dreyer of the University of Miami, the rivalry between China and Japan over regional dominance dates back 1,500 years.
In the beginning, both sides approached the other with arrogance.
When China attempted to treat Japan as a vassal state, Japan in turn responded with contempt.

However, full-scale conflict began only in the late nineteenth century, after Japan’s rapid modernization.
Japan’s victories in the Sino-Japanese War of 1895 and the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 became a prelude to the nationalism that would engulf the region during the First World War.

The history of Sino-Japanese relations follows a distinct pattern.
Periods of warmth and cold alternate.
The most notable warm period came after the normalization of diplomatic relations, from the 1970s through the 1980s.
There were also brief periods of stability in the 1990s and the mid-2000s.
But for nearly the past decade, relations have remained cold.

To be continued.