Before U.S. military action, two key signals typically appear: strong congressional pressure and the assembly of carrier strike groups. As neither was present around North Korea at the time, the likelihood of war was considered low. A realistic analysis of how the United States moves toward war.

When the United States goes to war, several of these carrier groups—so-called “carrier strike groups”—often assemble together.
2018-01-18
The following continues from the previous chapter.
The U.S. Congress is also important.
In fact, the North Korea issue is not regarded as particularly serious in the U.S. Congress.
When criticism grows strong within the United States, Congress passes sanctions resolutions, but no such resolution has yet been issued against North Korea.
In other words, interest within the United States remains limited.
Compared to North Korea, Iran has repeatedly been subjected to sanctions resolutions in Congress, so it might actually be attacked.
If criticism grows strong in Congress, Trump can justify action by saying, “Politically, I had no choice.”
If he were to launch a preemptive strike while ignoring Congress, he would be told, “Why are you doing this when Congress isn’t even raising an outcry?”
Another important factor is the movement of aircraft carriers.
When carriers conduct operations, they form groups with escort ships around them.
When the United States goes to war, several of these carrier groups—carrier strike groups—often gather together.
Since these groups have not yet assembled around North Korea, I believe the likelihood of war is low.
To be continued.