This article introduces a column by Yoshiko Sakurai published on the front page of the Sankei Shimbun. In the context of the U.S. attack on Iran, China’s rapid military expansion, maritime militia activities, and large-scale PLA exercises, the column warns that the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is rising sharply. Sakurai argues that defending Taiwan is equivalent to defending Japan and that Japan must strengthen its national defense, revise its Constitution, and reinforce the First and Second Island Chains.
The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai’s regular column titled “The Iran Situation and a Taiwan Contingency,” published on the front page of today’s Sankei Shimbun.
This essay also proves that she herself is what Saicho defined as a “National Treasure,” the highest national treasure.
It is essential reading not only for the Japanese people but for readers around the world.

On February 28, the United States attacked Iran.
President Trump announced that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had been killed and called on the Iranian people to change their regime.
How will the overwhelming power of the U.S. attack affect China and reverberate toward a Taiwan contingency.

On February 27, the Institute for National Policy Studies analyzed the threat from China at its Comprehensive Security Research Meeting.
The analysis examined the current state of the People’s Liberation Army, the power structure within the Chinese Communist Party, and the international situation.
The conclusion was that the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 has clearly increased.
It is vital to widely share this sense of urgency.

In the event of a Taiwan crisis, China’s greatest concern is preventing the arrival of U.S. forces.
China will naturally attempt to block every action Japan takes to support the United States.
One such method is the use of maritime militia.

In late December last year, 2,000 Chinese fishing vessels gathered in the East China Sea.

The fleet suddenly began moving simultaneously and formed a line stretching 470 kilometers.
Similar activities continued in January and February this year, with the gathering points of the fishing vessels moving closer to the median line between Japan and China each time.

This was reported by Tsukuba University assistant professor Aki Mohri at a research meeting of the Institute for National Policy Studies.
Mohri pointed out that the large group of fishing vessels had been trained as maritime militia under the instructions of President Xi Jinping.

According to the plan beginning in April this year, maritime militia activities will expand into the East China Sea.
There is a possibility that Japan Coast Guard or Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels could be obstructed by large numbers of fishing boats.
In such a case, cooperation with U.S. forces would become extremely difficult.

China’s intention to exclude U.S. forces and make the East China Sea its sphere of influence is clearly shown by the PLA training activities analyzed by researcher Maki Nakagawa.

In December last year, four amphibious assault ships of the Southern Theater Command deployed north of Palau.
Around the same time, the Liaoning aircraft carrier group of the Northern Theater Command operated in the western Pacific.
It appears the Northern and Southern Theater Commands strengthened cooperation to block U.S. forces approaching the Second Island Chain.

Military exercises are conducted across the entire PLA under realistic combat conditions.
For example, the Air Force conducts patrols involving H-6 bombers and aerial refueling aircraft.
They are capable of shifting instantly from patrol missions to attacks on Taiwan or combat operations east of the First Island Chain.

Rocket Force exercises and Army amphibious landing training are repeated thoroughly.
The determination to prevent U.S. forces from approaching the Second Island Chain while landing forces on Taiwan can be clearly read from these exercises and newly deployed equipment.
The scale of preparation far exceeds imagination.

The international community has predicted that Xi Jinping may launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2027.

Last December, the United States declared in its National Security Strategy that the era in which America supports the entire world order like Atlas has ended.
In its National Defense Strategy announced in January, the United States emphasized defense of the Western Hemisphere while pursuing deterrence by strength in the Indo-Pacific against China.

The concept of deterring China through strength can also be seen in attacks against Venezuela and Iran.
After witnessing the overwhelming power of the U.S. military, how will Xi move.

What must we pay the greatest attention to.

At the February 27 research meeting of the Institute for National Policy Studies, Yoshida Masanori, vice president of Sojitz USA, warned of instability in China’s civil-military relations.

If proper civil-military relations existed, objections to Xi’s decisions might be allowed.
But with five of the seven members of the Central Military Commission removed, there is no one left to offer advice to Xi.
His decisions may now be implemented immediately.

There is no one left to remonstrate with him.
This is the weakness of absolute power.

Four U.S.-China summits are scheduled this year, and a calm before the storm may continue.

However, China’s preparations for a Taiwan invasion will continue to advance toward 2027.
Military progress will likely strengthen Xi’s confidence.

The year 2027 will also mark Xi’s fourth term as General Secretary of the Communist Party.
He may feel strongly compelled to accomplish the historical mission of unifying Taiwan.

Disunity in the Western world could further strengthen his confidence.

We are truly entering a dangerous phase.

At this moment, what Japan must do is clear.
Defending Taiwan means defending Japan and protecting the free world.

The first major task is constitutional revision.

The urgent task is strengthening defense along the First and Second Island Chains.

Japan must fill the military vacuum on the Pacific side of the archipelago to enable the deployment of U.S. forces.

Long-range drone bases, air-defense radar, and electronic warfare systems should be deployed on Minamitorishima, the Ogasawara Islands, Iwo Jima, and Minami-Daito Island.

The Pacific must not become a sea dominated by Chinese or Russian naval forces.

We must now think about national defense as our own responsibility under the assumption that Xi could invade Taiwan next year.