Written on 2019-05-23.
This essay by Yoshiko Sakurai examines the Moon Jae-in administration’s drift toward left-wing authoritarianism based on the so-called candle revolution, its concentration of power through electoral reform and a new investigative body, the deepening divisions within South Korean society, and the danger this poses to Japan’s security environment.
It argues that Japan in the Reiwa era must seriously reconsider its national course, including constitutional revision.

2019-05-23

The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai’s serialized column published in the issue of Shukan Shincho released today.

South Korea Will Perish on President Moon’s Path of Authoritarian Revolution

Autobiographies, especially those written by politicians, must be read with a discount.
Even so, there can hardly be anything that gives off as distinctive a left-wing odor as Destiny by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, published in Japanese by Iwanami Shoten.
The Japanese edition was published last October, but the book says that in South Korea it was released in 2011 and became the top-selling book in its category within two weeks.
It portrays in sentimental prose the life story of how, after spending his boyhood as the son of refugees from North Korea and overcoming poverty to become a human-rights lawyer, an “ordinary man” trying to be a “good person” came to know Roh Moo-hyun, who respected human dignity and human rights in his work, was deeply moved by him, and gradually became involved in politics.
Yet in his emotional identification with former President Roh Moo-hyun, who had been completely one-sided toward North Korea, and in the socialist banner they wave, one senses the color of deception.
In May, Mr. Moon marked the second anniversary of his inauguration.
His term is five years and only one term, so he has three years remaining.
Moon’s two years in power can be described in one phrase as socialist revolutionary politics.
Moon himself has said that he seized power through the “candle revolution,” and it is fair to conclude that the direction of his policies is the establishment of an authoritarian socialist regime.
Incidentally, the candle revolution refers to dissatisfied citizens taking to the streets holding candles and using pressure to move politics.
Former President Park Geun-hye was continually denounced in candlelight demonstrations and was forced from office.
In South Korea, these candlelight demonstrations led by left-liberal forces and the Taegeukgi demonstrations carried out by conservative forces waving the South Korean flag are held every week.
Mr. Moon’s words may be soft, but his actions are insidious and hard-line.
That disposition in Mr. Moon has gradually been seen through by the South Korean people.
His approval rating, which had been as high as 84.1 percent when his administration began, had fallen to 47.3 percent in a May 9 opinion poll by Realmeter.
His disapproval rating was 48.6 percent.
As for party support, Mr. Moon’s ruling Democratic Party stood at 36.4 percent, while the main opposition Liberty Korea Party stood close behind at 34.8 percent.

The Purge of Pro-Japanese Elements

At this rate, he may lose the general election next April.
On top of that, the South Korean economy is struggling.
As of April, there were 1.24 million unemployed people, and the unemployment rate among the young was 11.5 percent.
Nishioka Tsutomu, an expert on Korean affairs, points out that if one includes young people living on three-hour-a-day part-time jobs and cram-school students working part-time, the youth unemployment rate swells to 25 percent (“Genron TV,” May 17).
So Mr. Moon set a clever trap.
This is Nishioka Tsutomu’s explanation.
“He designated two legislative bills — the bill to revise the electoral system and the bill to establish the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials — as fast-track items in the National Assembly. This system, commonly called the fast track, allows a bill to be put to a vote in the plenary session after 330 days.”
If work begins now, the two laws can be used in next April’s general election.
Simulation results showed that the introduction of the revised election law would deal the greatest blow to Mr. Moon’s rival, the Liberty Korea Party.
South Korea’s National Assembly is unicameral, with 300 seats: 253 single-member district seats and 47 proportional-representation seats.
In single-member districts, the contest is between the first and second parties, and the third and fourth small parties have no chance of winning.
So Mr. Moon is considering a plan to increase the number of proportional seats to 75, or even more.
If calculated at 75, the Liberty Korea Party would lose about 20 seats.
The ruling Democratic Party may also lose seats, but aside from the Liberty Korea Party, all parties in South Korea are left-wing parties.
In particular, the minor opposition Justice Party is an extreme-left party, so overall it is a structure in which the left-liberal forces are certain to win.
“Nak with this, ruling party leader Lee Hae-chan boasts that the ruling party can hold power for 20 years.”
When Nishioka Tsutomu said this, Hong Hyeong, editorial chief of The Unification Daily, who was appearing with him on Genron TV, replied:
“Fifty years.”
What kind of outcome can be expected from the Moon administration’s other target, the bill to establish the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials?
Mr. Hong bluntly declared the character of that law to be “a Gestapo law.”
The Moon administration has promoted the “eradication of accumulated evils” and purged pro-Japanese elements, but recently criticism of the Moon administration has begun to erupt from every sector and stratum of South Korean society.
On March 1, the veterans’ association called on younger active-duty military personnel to show “disobedience toward the Moon administration, which is advancing disarmament toward North Korea,” and demanded the resignation of Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo.
Such a call for disobedience, unimaginable in a normal military, shows how serious South Korea’s internal conflict is.
In addition, 42 former ambassadors and others expressed opposition to South Korea’s foreign policy and called on younger diplomats to “quickly restore the security cooperation system with Japan and the United States.”
Even among prosecutors, judges, and police officers, who appear to be the central forces in the purge of pro-Japanese elements, there are forces critical of the Moon administration.
Sensing with sharp instinct the movements of these anti-Moon forces, and thinking that otherwise he would be done in, Mr. Moon appears to have moved first with these two bills.
“We will fight shedding blood.”
“In other words, if you rise in rebellion, next time we will arrest you,” says Nishioka Tsutomu.
If such an investigative body targeting high-ranking officials is realized, the atmosphere in South Korea will instantly become gloomy.
In his autobiography, Mr. Moon says that his mission is to carry on Roh Moo-hyun’s dying wish.
Roh Moo-hyun was the man who, at the inter-Korean summit in 2007, made a pledge tantamount to handing South Korea over to Kim Jong-il.
The سلسلة of changes now under way in South Korea, which can fairly be called a revolution, may lead directly to the collapse of the Republic of Korea.
It is a rebellion against the fatherland, directed by the president himself.
Amid such abnormal circumstances, attention should be paid to the movements of Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the Liberty Korea Party.
He is an elite former public-security prosecutor who served as justice minister and prime minister under the previous Park administration.
He was not originally a politician, but this February he rose up to fight the Moon administration.
He is now out in the streets calling on the people, “Let us fight together, shedding blood.”
The declaration of resolve that he issued is ferocious.
“The Moon administration has already seized the executive branch. The judiciary has also been almost occupied. Through revision of the election law, he is now trying to seize even the National Assembly. Let us now put an end to Moon Jae-in’s left-wing dictatorship. The Liberty Korea Party will stand at the forefront of a life-or-death struggle. We will fight shedding blood. I want all citizens to rise up prepared for sacrifice. Otherwise, our sons and daughters will live under left-wing dictatorship!”
South Korea is in a civil war.
That means, in turn, that crisis is approaching Japan.
In the Reiwa era, the international environment surrounding Japan will likely be even harsher than it was in the Heisei era.
Recognizing that, I want to think about the future course of Japan, including constitutional revision.