Behind the spread of nuclear weapons across the entire Middle East stand China and Russia, and they will create a grotesque world wholly alien to democracy. Such a situation must be avoided.
This article introduces Yoshiko Sakurai’s regular column published in yesterday’s Sankei Shimbun.
It sharply argues for stopping Iran’s nuclear and missile development, ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, remaining vigilant against China’s support for Iran, and learning seriously from the historic failure of allowing North Korea to become a nuclear power.
It calls on readers to support the larger objective of the Trump administration and urges Japan, under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, to lead a grand coalition including CPTPP members and ASEAN in order to preserve Middle Eastern stability and a free and open international order.
The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai’s regular column published on pages 1 and 2 of yesterday’s Sankei Shimbun.
This essay too proves that she is a national treasure, a supreme national treasure, as defined by Saichō.
It is required reading not only for the Japanese people but for people throughout the world.
As for the passages emphasized in bold, the old media, beginning with NHK, must report them at once and inform the nation of the facts.
Responding to Iran: Support the United States.
On the 1st, President Trump told the American people that the purpose of the attack on Iran was to stop its development of nuclear weapons, and declared that with further attacks on Iran he would “return it to the Stone Age.”
What is important now is to support the prevention of nuclear possession by states that support terrorists, and to make a calm analysis of China’s movements.
Amid the confusion, Iran declared that it had seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and would impose passage fees.
A U.S. newspaper reported that the payment currency would be the renminbi or crypto assets, and that, whether countries complied with Iran’s demand or not, 25 vessels had passed through as of April 2.
Two Mitsui O.S.K. Lines vessels loaded with liquefied natural gas, and Chinese ships as well, passed through.
It was China that gained practical benefit in that process.
According to Bloomberg, renminbi settlement of oil transactions caused shares in the financial services division of China National Petroleum Corporation, CNPC, to surge temporarily to the daily limit.
China highly praised Iran’s measure, saying that “the renminbi has emerged as a principal alternative means for global capital.”
However, it is clear that transactions that appear to recognize Iranian sovereignty over an international strait run counter to the very nature of a free and open international community.
Can the United States stop Iran’s nuclear and missile development through such fierce attacks that it says will return Iran to the Stone Age.
On the 3rd, for the first time since the start of the attacks, U.S. Air Force F15E fighter aircraft and A10 attack aircraft were shot down by Iran.
The rescue of the missing crew members again demonstrated the high capability of the U.S. military and the inferiority of Iran’s military power.
However, what the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, points to is concern over China: “while the U.S. and Israeli forces seek to weaken Iran’s missile program, China’s support for Iran may undermine the efforts of both countries.”
The institute reported that five ships believed to be carrying sodium perchlorate, used as missile propellant, had arrived in Iran from China.
By supporting Iran’s ability to continue the war, China, like Russia, is obstructing the end of the war.
President Trump’s effort to stop Iran’s nuclear and missile development is a strong demand from almost the entire world.
We must seriously learn from the failure of allowing North Korea to possess nuclear weapons.
In 1994, President Clinton was on the verge of solidifying his resolve to launch a bombing strike against Kim Il Sung of North Korea, who was advancing uranium enrichment leading to the production of nuclear weapons.
But former President Carter intervened, proposed a solution through talks, and the United States believed that North Korea would halt its nuclear development.
Thirty years later, North Korea possesses 50 nuclear warheads and medium-range ballistic missiles aimed at Japan, and it is also improving the performance of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.
Allowing North Korea to possess nuclear weapons was a major strategic failure.
How are the United States and Iran negotiating.
There are two currents in Iran.
They are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, and the Iranian government.
As Afshon Ostovar clearly stated in the May–June issue of Foreign Affairs, it is not the executive government but the IRGC that holds real influence.
In April, the Iranian authorities publicly executed an 18-year-old boy who had been convicted in connection with the protest demonstrations in January.
On March 19, they also publicly executed three people, including a 19-year-old international wrestler.
They rule the entire country through merciless and brutal coercive force.
Having come under attack by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, they will strengthen their unity, become ever more warlike, and dominate the people through fear.
For the time being, Iran will remain under the terror rule of the IRGC.
History should also teach us how to deal with such people.
In 2015, President Obama concluded a nuclear agreement with Iran, but if one examines its contents carefully, there was a danger that it would open the path for Iran to possess nuclear weapons ten years later.
Obama did not face squarely Iran’s determination to develop nuclear weapons or its true objective, but compromised and fled into dealing only with the immediate problem before him.
Incidentally, he also failed to face squarely the threat from China and the threat from Russia.
It is, objectively speaking, a fact that it was President Trump who changed the U.S. Middle East policy that had been a continuous series of failures.
If Iran is allowed to possess nuclear weapons, those weapons will naturally fall into the hands of terrorists.
Moreover, if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and others will immediately react and obtain them as well.
Behind the spread of nuclear weapons across the entire Middle East stand China and Russia, and they will create a grotesque world wholly alien to democracy.
Such a situation must be avoided.
It is easy to criticize the Trump administration, full of defects though it may be, but now we should clearly support its larger objective.
Ostovar points out an important fact.
Many IRGC leaders have been killed, but the most capable reformist, that is, moderate, leaders have for the most part escaped harm.
In other words, the group of people who should become the next leaders has survived.
Ordinary Iranian citizens who oppose the IRGC, and also the strata that hold real power in society, represented by bazaar merchants, are lying low, but they remain alive and intact.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should now propose a grand coalition led by Japan, including the member states of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, and also the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, and deploy diplomacy aimed at achieving safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
She should take joy in the historic mission of becoming prime minister at this very moment, and should stake her political life on repeated meetings with Mr. Trump and the leaders of other nations.
Beyond that, opportunities should also arise to work with the leaders of Iran’s next era in the rebuilding of Iran.
