Published on July 15, 2019.
This article introduces Kadota Ryusho’s serialized column in the monthly magazine WiLL, titled “How Should We View the Hokkaido Earthquake Blackout?”
Using the island-wide power outage caused by the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake as a lesson, it discusses the shutdown of the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant, excessive dependence on thermal power, the limits of renewable energy, and the importance of dispersing power-supply risk in disaster-prone Japan.

July 15, 2019.
As the limits of renewable energy become clear in Germany, Japan, where natural disasters occur frequently, must calmly consider how it will secure its electricity.
The following is from Kadota Ryusho’s serialized column titled “How Should We View the Hokkaido Earthquake ‘Blackout’?” published in this month’s issue of WiLL, one of the four monthly magazines that I recommend subscribing to as essential reading for any person living in the twenty-first century who wants to know the truth.
The emphases in the text are mine.
“I am glad it was not midwinter……” power experts are whispering to one another as they look at each other’s faces.
They are speaking of the island-wide power outage caused by the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, which registered a seismic intensity of seven and occurred shortly after 3 a.m. on September 6.
The Tomato-Atsuma Thermal Power Station of Hokkaido Electric Power, which produces 1.65 million kilowatts, about half of the electricity in Hokkaido, was hit directly by the earthquake and shut down.
As a result, the supply-demand balance of the entire power grid spread across Hokkaido collapsed, and the terrifying situation known as a “blackout” occurred.
Arguments have arisen in direct opposition to one another, from the claim that “this happened because the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant was not operating” to the opposite claim that “if the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant had been operating, the result would have been even more tragic.”
The opening remark, “I am glad it was not midwinter,” means, “If it had been midwinter, one cannot even imagine how many people might have frozen to death.”
In Japan, where a stable supply of electricity is maintained, power outages rarely occur.
But this time, an unexpected event occurred in Hokkaido because of a violent earthquake registering seismic intensity seven.
According to the explanation of an electrical engineer, “Electricity cannot be stored.
For that reason, supply and demand must always be kept in balance.
This time, because of the earthquake, the Tomato-Atsuma Thermal Power Station, which has nearly half of Hokkaido’s total generating capacity, made an emergency shutdown.
However, even though it was the middle of the night, demand for electricity continued in large cities such as Sapporo.
As a result, consumption exceeded generating supply capacity, the supply-demand balance collapsed, and the frequency dropped all at once.”
Generators are damaged when frequency becomes unstable and a load is placed on them.
To prevent this, other power plants automatically shut down one after another, and the system fell into a blackout.
“For a time, in an attempt to restore balance, some areas were forcibly blacked out to reduce demand, and support through power transmission from Honshu also helped the system recover, but in the end, the sudden frequency drop could not be prevented, and the situation could not be avoided.”
If the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant had been operating, would such a situation really not have occurred?
“To speak from the result, in this earthquake, the shaking actually detected at the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant facing the Sea of Japan was less than ten gal, so if the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant had been operating, electricity would probably have been supplied safely.
In other words, I think there would have been no problem with the flow of electricity.
To begin with, because the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant was not operating, Hokkaido was relying too heavily on the Tomato-Atsuma Thermal Power Station.
If the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant had been operating, I think the blackout would not have occurred in a double sense.”
The Tomari Nuclear Power Plant, like the nine reactors now operating in Japan after passing safety inspections, consists entirely of PWRs, pressurized water reactors.
However, in March of last year, the Nuclear Regulation Authority announced a view concerning the Tomari Nuclear Power Plant that “the existence of an active fault cannot be denied” on the seabed west of the Shakotan Peninsula.
There was no scientific basis showing that an active fault exists, but because of the vague view that its “existence cannot be denied,” no prospect for operation could be established, and Hokkaido Electric Power was left at a loss.
In the end, operation under the “distorted” arrangement in which one thermal power station supplied half of Hokkaido’s electricity produced this unprecedented blackout.
With electricity, it is necessary to disperse risk in many different senses.
The method of power generation and the locations of power stations must also be considered in preparation for every kind of disaster and unforeseen event.
As the limits of renewable energy become clear in Germany, Japan, where natural disasters occur frequently, surely must calmly consider how it will secure its electricity.
A person connected with TEPCO reveals the following.
“When a major earthquake strikes the Tokyo metropolitan area, which depends on supply from thermal power stations on the bay, if nuclear power plants are not operating, I think a power shortage will occur and a major panic will break out.
This year was extremely hot, wasn’t it?
Fortunately, no blackout occurred, but in fact, there were several days when we cut electricity to large customers such as factories.
This was based on a special contract called ‘demand response,’ but in order to prevent a major blackout, we activated it and had them allow us to cut power.
Because the general media have not reported it, it is not widely known, but in fact, this winter as well, electricity became insufficient, and we had to activate it.
This summer, there was news about patients who died of heatstroke in hospitals, but this is not someone else’s problem.
If a major earthquake were to strike the Tokyo metropolitan area, and the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant were not operating, I think it would be truly dangerous in terms of power supply.
We must not forget why this blackout occurred.”
In preparation for a great disaster, what is needed above all is “risk dispersion.”
Beyond ideology and emotional argument, I hope that the Hokkaido earthquake will be taken as a lesson and that calm discussion in every sense will follow.