Published on July 16, 2019.
Based on Yasunosuke Kudan’s column “What Is Wrong with U.S.–Russia Rapprochement?” in the monthly magazine Hanada, this essay examines the U.S.–China tariff war, China’s admission to the WTO, HNA and Deutsche Bank, China’s economic decline, and the meaning of closer U.S.–Russia relations.
It considers the Trump administration’s strategy toward China, the growing proximity between the EU and China, and the possible implications of a U.S.–Russia thaw for Japan.

July 16, 2019.
Recently, Premier Li Keqiang visited Merkel in Germany.
The poor management of Deutsche Bank had long been discussed.
Incidentally, the aforementioned HNA is the largest shareholder of Deutsche Bank.
The poor state of Deutsche Bank’s management can be readily imagined.
The following is a chapter published on July 27, 2018.
It is from Yasunosuke Kudan’s serialized column titled “What Is Wrong with U.S.–Russia Rapprochement?” which appears at the beginning of this month’s issue of the monthly magazine Hanada.
The emphasis in the text, other than the headings, is mine.
Amid the intensifying U.S.–China tariff war, arguments are now emerging that it was a mistake in the first place for China to have been admitted to the WTO, the World Trade Organization, under American leadership.
For example, in its annual report on China’s compliance with WTO rules, the Office of the United States Trade Representative pointed out that “in terms of China’s failure to move forward with the introduction of an open, market-oriented trade regime, it was clearly a mistake for the United States to support China’s accession to the WTO.”
What are they saying at this late stage?
It is a ridiculous story.
China never cared a straw about WTO rules from the very beginning.
Is that not something that was obvious from the start?
It forces technology transfers, steals intellectual property, restricts foreign investment, subsidizes and protects its own companies—doing whatever it wants.
Japanese companies that have entered China cannot take out their profits because of the rule that profits must be returned to China.
Therefore, they have to resort to complicated devices, such as sending the money through banks in Hong Kong.
China, which is like the very incarnation of protectionism, now speaks of the global economy as if it were the standard-bearer of free trade, and waves the banner of opposition, claiming that Trump’s protectionism endangers the world economy.
Its self-serving shamelessness is beyond measure.
Nevertheless, since Trump’s attack on China began, the Chinese economy has been on a steady decline, and several major companies are facing the danger of default.
For example, in early July, a Chinese man died suspiciously in Paris.
He was a Chinese man named Wang Jian, and the cause of death was said to have been a fall.
This man was the boss of HNA, Hainan Airlines Group, China’s largest private airline company, and HNA was carrying a huge amount of debt.
According to one view, the amount was estimated at 600 billion yuan, or 10.1 trillion yen.
As Trump says, China has thoroughly taken advantage of the United States.
Once China realized that this would no longer work with Trump’s appearance, it rapidly approached the EU, the European Union, and Germany in particular.
Incidentally, Merkel has visited China more than ten times.
By now, the German economy and the Chinese economy are tied together in one fate.
Recently, Premier Li Keqiang visited Merkel in Germany.
The poor management of Deutsche Bank had long been discussed.
Incidentally, the aforementioned HNA is the largest shareholder of Deutsche Bank.
The poor state of Deutsche Bank’s management can be readily imagined.
Most likely, Merkel and Li Keqiang must have discussed the disposal of the Deutsche Bank shares held by HNA.
Merkel was defeated in the previous election, was forced into a minority coalition, and her government is in a perilous state, like a stack of eggs.
Speaking of peril, Britain’s Prime Minister May also leads a coalition government, and in addition, there is cabinet disunity over Brexit, the withdrawal from the EU, and two ministers have resigned.
Dark clouds hang over the future of her administration.
France’s Macron is also suffering from a decline in approval ratings.
France has been in a nationwide festive mood after winning the soccer World Cup.
This may allow some recovery in his approval rating, but the momentum of the 80 percent approval rating he had when he first appeared is now nowhere to be seen.
These three—Merkel, May, and Macron—join Xi Jinping and form a scrum to oppose Trump.
Recently, EU President Tusk and Commission President Juncker visited Xi Jinping in Beijing.
After all, Trump declared that “the EU is a foe,” and held a four-hour meeting with Putin in Helsinki.
Regarding this U.S.–Russia summit, a chorus of criticism has arisen in the United States from lawmakers of both parties, saying things such as, “Trump’s remarks are an act of betrayal against the nation.
Never before has there been a president who has treated long-standing allies with such contempt and bowed down so much to an enemy tyrant.
From now on, the EU will never trust the United States at all.”
However, in fact, for Japan, U.S.–Russia rapprochement is not entirely a bad thing.
That is because it will drive a wedge into China-Russia relations.
The immediate main enemy of Japan and the United States is China.
For both Abe and Trump, the “main citadel” is China.
Shigeru Yoshida once said, based on his twenty years of experience living in China, “The Chinese and the Russians will absolutely never get along.”
The two countries share a 4,000-kilometer border.
There is a movement of Chinese people crossing that border and pushing into Siberia.
Putin does not look favorably on this.
What Putin wants is the lifting of economic sanctions imposed over the annexation of Crimea.
Trump did not raise the annexation of Crimea as an issue in this meeting.
Rather, during the election campaign, he made remarks that seemed to tolerate it.
If U.S.–Russia relations are repaired by using the lifting of economic sanctions as leverage, it will form one corner of an encirclement against China.
The country that will dislike this is China.
However, in the U.S. Congress, the argument for maintaining sanctions on Russia is stronger, so the repair of U.S.–Russia relations will again depend on future developments.
The future is darkness even one inch ahead, and Japan, too, should consider various responses.