Published on November 11, 2019. From an interview with Francis Fukuyama, senior fellow at Stanford University, published in the Nikkei Shimbun on November 9. Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Fukuyama discusses the recession of democracy, China’s state capitalism, U.S.-China rivalry, the risk over Taiwan, the future of the international order after the Trump administration, and the stronger security role Japan should assume in Asia.

November 11, 2019.
Japan should assume a stronger role in Asia.
It should reorganize the Self-Defense Forces with the threat from China in mind and strengthen solidarity with countries exposed to the same threat.
The following is from an interview with Francis Fukuyama, senior fellow at Stanford University, published in the Nikkei Shimbun on November 9.
Internal worries for victorious democracy.
November 9 marks thirty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
The world that graduated from the East-West Cold War has entered an age of strain in democracy and rivalry between the United States and China.
We asked an expert how to read the world from now on.
―How has the world evolved since the fall of the Wall?
“There is no doubt that there have been many advances.
Since 1970, the number of democratic countries has increased from 30 to 110, and the scale of the economy has expanded fourfold.
The fall of the Wall occurred in the middle of the period that my teacher Samuel Huntington called ‘the Third Wave of Democratization.’”
―That democracy seems to be shaken.
“What has occurred over the past ten years is a recession of democracy.
Beginning with the United States, which produced President Trump, a movement of populism has spread among sophisticated democracies.
It is an astonishing change.
China and Russia have built stable autocratic systems and are trying to undermine the self-confidence of democracy by using digital technology.”
―Why has this backlash arisen?
“Internationalization was supposed to make everyone richer, but wealth has not spread evenly.
The income of the working class has stagnated, and jobs have been taken by developing countries.
Right-wing parties are spreading conspiracy theories that only elites benefited from the influx of immigrants and the loss of national sovereignty.
The cultural aspect is larger than the economic one.”
―In your book The End of History, you pointed to the victory of democracy.
Was that too optimistic?
“In units of thirty years, my argument was correct.
We stopped before reaching communism.
No social system superior to democracy linked with a market economy has been found, but that does not satisfy everything.
There are difficult problems inside democracy.”
―China’s state capitalism is rising.
“When I met with Wang Qishan, the current vice president, he told me, ‘Only the Communist Party can rule China.’
President Xi Jinping’s greatest concern is the future of the Party.
They are trying to construct totalitarianism by monitoring every movement of individuals through big data and machine learning.”
―Will they succeed?
“I do not know.
At some stage, people may begin to rebel.
China says its economy is growing at 6%, but many commentators say the reality is 3 to 4%.
The question is whether people will remain loyal to the regime even if it falls into recession.”
―The United States and China have begun to compete fiercely.
“The United States is certainly moving toward a hostile relationship with China.
China is not engaging in fair competition, as seen in enormous violations of intellectual property rights and industrial subsidies.
Even if Mr. Trump loses the 2020 election, the United States and China will not return to their previous friendly relationship.
Decoupling between China and the Western economic sphere is unavoidable.
In the high-tech field, it is indispensable.”
―Could an actual clash occur?
“I think the possibility of conflict in Asia is far higher than many people think.
The greatest risk is Taiwan.
President Xi said that he would take back Taiwan before he retires.
America’s commitment to Taiwan is also doubtful.”
―What changes have occurred in the three years of President Trump?
“Mr. Trump prefers the dictatorial leaders of North Korea, Russia, and China to the leaders of democratic countries.
He does not understand the significance of multilateral cooperation and is attacking everything at the same time.
Countries other than the United States must move multilateral cooperation forward.
If Mr. Trump is reelected, the situation will be serious.
The weakening of international institutions will be unavoidable.”
―What are Japan’s tasks?
“Japan should assume a stronger role in Asia.
It should reorganize the Self-Defense Forces with the threat from China in mind and strengthen solidarity with countries exposed to the same threat.
It is a serious mistake that Japan and South Korea have fallen into a deep-rooted dispute.”
（Interviewer: Mikio Sugano, Washington Bureau Chief）