As the novel coronavirus spread, rumors of a toilet paper shortage followed the mask shortage. Yet masks and toilet paper are made from different materials, and toilet paper is almost entirely domestically produced in Japan. Recalling the 1973 oil shock panic, this essay reflects on how rumors create social anxiety.

March 2, 2020
Why Do Toilet Paper Panics Happen? Rumors Infect Society Like a Virus
The following is from today’s Sankei Sho.
Masks are still unavailable.
Because of the nature of my work, telework, or working from home, is not an option.
Even without being infected by the new coronavirus, one may cough or sneeze on a commuter train.
Even if one covers one’s mouth with one’s sleeve, as etiquette requires, the cold looks from those around do not change.
When the mask shortage began to become a problem, I remembered the toilet paper panic of 1973, Showa 48.
The trigger was the oil shock that hit Japan in the wake of the Fourth Middle East War.
Prices of petroleum products such as gasoline and kerosene soared.
Before long, rumors spread, centered in Kansai, that toilet paper would disappear.
Confusion caused by hoarding and other behavior spread across the country.
The same movement spread even to sugar, soy sauce, and other products that had no direct relation to oil.
Now, the theory that toilet paper will become scarce is spreading again through the internet and social media.
Two reasons are being given.
“The materials used to make toilet paper are being used to make masks.”
“Imports from China will stop.”
Both are wrong.
First, masks are made of nonwoven fabric, while toilet paper is made of pulp and recycled paper.
Their raw materials are different.
Toilet paper is also almost one hundred percent domestically produced in Japan and is not affected by China, the source of the new virus.
Even so, even if one knows that it is a false rumor, when told that products have disappeared from supermarket and drugstore shelves, it becomes difficult to suppress one’s anxiety.
A groundless and irresponsible rumor is called a ryugen.
According to the critic Ikutaro Shimizu, this is an old word found in Chinese classics such as Xunzi and Shiji, meaning that a single rumor can overturn a nation.
This is discussed in Rumors and False Reports.
For humanity, rumors, like viruses, appear to be something against which the struggle continues without end.
This article is truly timely.
Masks are in short supply.
That much is understandable.
Many masks had been produced in China, and their supply was affected by the confusion in China, the very source of the outbreak.
But the danger of modern society lies in the leap from that fact to the claim that toilet paper will disappear.
Masks are made of nonwoven fabric.
Toilet paper is made of pulp and recycled paper.
The raw materials are different.
Moreover, toilet paper is almost one hundred percent domestically produced in Japan.
The claim that it will disappear because imports from China will stop does not stand from the beginning.
Nevertheless, products disappear from store shelves.
People rush to hoard them.
Others see that and become anxious as well, and then they buy.
In this way, a shortage that did not exist begins to look like a real shortage.
This is precisely how rumor infects society.
Just as a virus spreads from person to person, rumor also spreads from person to person.
Moreover, today’s rumors do not move at the speed of old neighborhood gossip.
Through the internet and social media, they spread across the entire country, and at times across the world, in an instant.
That is why rumor has become far more dangerous than before.
The toilet paper panic of 1973 had the real anxiety of the oil shock as its background.
The present panic also has the real anxiety of the new coronavirus as its background.
However, the fact that anxiety is real and the claim that a rumor is true are entirely different things.
Precisely because there is real anxiety, people become more easily deceived by falsehood.
Then that falsehood moves people’s behavior and creates actual confusion.
Here lies the terror of rumor.
As Ikutaro Shimizu said, a single rumor can overturn a nation.
What overturns a nation is not necessarily an army or a bomb.
A groundless rumor.
People who spread it uncritically.
And those who turn it into business or political exploitation.
When these overlap, society is easily thrown into confusion.
What the people must do now is not panic.
It is not to rush into hoarding.
Nor is it to believe every word flowing from television or social media.
First, facts must be checked.
Masks and toilet paper are made from different raw materials.
Toilet paper is almost entirely domestically produced in Japan.
With just these two facts, the present false rumor collapses.
Even so, if one is driven by anxiety and rushes into hoarding, then one has joined the side that, like a virus, corrodes society.
Rumor is like a virus.
Whether to spread it or stop it there.
The reason of each individual is now being tested.