2024/03/21

She is a national treasure as defined by Saicho, and a national treasure of the highest order.
2021/3/2
She is a national treasure as defined by Saicho, and a national treasure of the highest order.
The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai’s regular column, which concludes the issue of Shukan Shincho released yesterday.
This essay, too, proves that she is a national treasure of the highest order as defined by Saicho.
A must-read not only for the Japanese people, but for people throughout the world.
Professor Kennedy: “The United States Will Not Decline”
On March 9, I took part in a three-way discussion with Professor Paul Kennedy at an international seminar entitled “Is the United States in Decline?”
Professor Kennedy, joining remotely from his home near Yale University in Connecticut in the eastern United States, quickly prepared and checked the audio.
We did the same and were ready well before the scheduled time.
I introduced myself and asked, “Shall we begin, if you are ready?”
The professor replied with a very cheerful expression, “Let’s do it!”
Whenever I hear the name Paul Kennedy, I immediately think of the two-volume Japanese edition of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
The book, which describes the rise and fall of the great powers from 1500 to 2000, became an international bestseller.
My copy is the 1988 edition translated by Chikara Suzuki and published by Soshisha.
At the time, I was writing articles for Bungeishunju and Shokun!, but I was not yet an author, and Professor Kennedy was a dazzling presence.
The professor was fully prepared and eager to begin the discussion.
Is the United States in decline?
If it is, will it continue to decline?
For Japan, no questions are more pressing than these.
After all, Japan’s security must be discussed in conjunction with the United States.
Whether the Chinese Communist Party’s domination of the world can be prevented is a critical question that will determine the fate of Japan and the entire world.
Professor Kennedy suggests that we first look back five hundred years.
Five hundred years ago, China was the largest country in the world.
From the nineteenth century onward, the world’s great powers came to dominate the entire globe, and Japan and the United States gained strength within this new configuration.
In the twentieth century, the First World War weakened Europe, while the United States and Japan gained strength.
In the twentieth century, the First World War weakened Europe, while the United States and Japan became even stronger.
During the Second World War, the United States became a superpower, while Japan was defeated, lost millions of its people, and fell to the level of the world’s poorest countries.
China is disappointed.
After the war, Japan once again became a world power, while the United States led the Soviet Union toward collapse and became the sole superpower.
Even so, the world as a whole is still trying to assess its true strength and future.
Against this backdrop, China has actively promoted the theory of American decline.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, known as a pro-China politician, points out that Xi Jinping’s policy toward the United States has remained consistent since he became president in 2013, and that his underlying belief is that the historical tide is turning in China’s favor.
(Foreign Affairs, March–April 2009)
According to Rudd, China has already declared that it will overtake the United States and dominate the world by 2049, the centenary of its founding, and is moving ahead of schedule in many respects on its path to becoming the world’s strongest nation.
For example, military modernization will be completed in another six years, by 2015, eight years ahead of the original schedule.
This substantial acceleration is intended to secure an advantage over the United States in every respect when attempting to seize Taiwan.
Rudd writes that China is surprised that the American counteroffensive has been more limited than expected.
China has set specific goals for breaking American dominance and is steadily implementing them one by one.
When I asked Professor Kennedy what he thought about China’s propagation of the theory of American decline, he replied that the Chinese media have an extraordinary interest in writing about it because they wish to witness America’s decline without going to war.
China’s efforts to spread the theory of American decline are probably part of its signature “Three Warfares”: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare.
By creating the impression that American power is weakening, China can undermine confidence in the United States, draw more countries toward itself, and even drive a wedge into America’s alliances.
It may be a means of persuading people that China is more dependable than the United States.
Having made these perceptive observations, Professor Kennedy said the following.
America’s decline is relative, not absolute.
The United States may have to share its position with other rising powers, but it will remain strong.
In that respect, China will be disappointed.
Professor Kennedy said that China would not defeat the United States and that America’s strength would come from its robust economy.
The professor emphasizes that the United States can achieve remarkable economic growth and bring prosperity to its people.
This, he says, will restore confidence in the American government and respect for democracy, contributing to the stability of the nation as a whole.
Japan’s Path
However, the professor predicted that the United States would need to cooperate with its allies to confront China, and he highly praised Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for conceiving a framework for cooperation among Japan, the United States, Australia, and India.
Looking back through history, there are similar examples.
Before the First World War, Germany built numerous warships and developed a large fleet.
France, Britain, Russia, and others became alarmed, and this led to the First World War.
History shows the outcome.
Another comparable example is the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The Soviet Union also expanded its fleet and advanced into the Mediterranean.
The United States, Britain, France, Italy, and other countries cooperated closely to prevent aggressive Soviet activities.
The Quad of Japan, the United States, Australia, and India, Britain’s willingness to join it, and even the positive responses to the Quad from France and Germany all arose from China’s aggressive offensive.
If we extrapolate from the historical examples presented by Professor Kennedy, the side that initiates reckless confrontation is the one that loses.
In other words, China is the loser in the crisis now unfolding.
On the fifteenth, as I was writing this article, the American secretaries of state and defense arrived in Japan to participate in the Japan–U.S. Security Consultative Committee, commonly known as the “2+2.”
The document “Reaffirming the Strong Japan–U.S. Alliance,” released by the American government on April 14, explicitly states that “the United States’ commitment to the defense of Japan is unwavering,” that “Article V of the Japan–U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands,” and that “Japan and the United States will cooperate to address China’s challenges.”
There were concerns that the Biden administration might become a second Obama administration, making concessions to China.
However, the contents of the document above, the realization of the “2+2,” and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s visit to Washington on the first day of the summit all dispel such doubts.
Professor Kennedy said that if Japan’s economic relations with China deteriorate, alternatives will exist, but if Japan’s security relations with the United States deteriorate, there will be no alternative.
He is right.
This three-way discussion led me to conclude that, within the great sweep of history, Japan must implement major reforms, including constitutional revision, to survive as a proper nation.