2024/5/28
Japan’s “clean energy strategy” demands 15 trillion yen annually, risking high costs and deeper dependence on China. In the new Cold War, security must outweigh naive decarbonization.

Government-Led Decarbonization at Massive Cost: Japan’s Strategic Miscalculation in the New Cold War
May 28, 2024

The following is based on an article by Taishi Sugiyama, Senior Research Fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, titled “Energy Is a Top Priority for Security” in today’s Sankei Shimbun “Sound Arguments.”
This article is a must-read not only for Japanese citizens but also for people around the world.
(Emphasis in the text, except for the headline, is mine.)

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A “Clean Energy Strategy” Burdening the Public

The government has announced an interim reorganization of its “clean energy strategy.”
Although the Ukrainian War shifted the priority to “de-Russia before decarbonization,” the plan still calls for government-led decarbonization investments at an enormous cost.

The strategy requires an annual investment of 15 trillion yen, largely borne by the public.
Already, renewable energy surcharges cost citizens 2.4 trillion yen annually.
Further costs loom with the expansion of renewables, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, all of which are far more expensive than existing technologies.

While some elements—like investments in battery plants, semiconductor fabs, and data centers—can contribute to economic growth and national security, the strategy risks making Japan a high-cost state unless carefully limited.

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The New Cold War and the End of Decarbonization Dreams

Since the 1992 Earth Summit, climate change has been framed as a global cooperative challenge, resting on the optimism of the post–Cold War era.
But that utopian vision collapsed.

• China has grown increasingly authoritarian while competing for global hegemony.
• Russia, after failed democratization, reverted to authoritarianism, annexed Crimea, and finally launched its war in Ukraine.

It is now clear that a new Cold War has begun.
Under these conditions, there is no longer hope for a global cooperative solution to climate change.
Europe itself, scrambling for fossil fuels after cutting dependence on Russia, shows how priorities are shifting.

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From “De-Russia” to “De-China”

What follows after decoupling from Russia?
U.S. leaders are warning clearly:

• Senator Marco Rubio stresses that China’s threat is “a thousand times greater than Russia,” given its economic size and military strength.
• Senator Tom Cotton argues for simultaneous de-Russia and de-China policies, beginning with strategic separation in key sectors like semiconductors and rare earths.

Europe’s dependence on Russian gas emboldened Moscow and ended in devastation.
Similarly, massive reliance on solar panels, EVs, and rare earths dominated by China could expose democracies to new vulnerabilities.

For Japan, the colossal cost of decarbonization would weaken its manufacturing industry and national power, while deepening dependence on China.

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Conclusion

Japan must reconsider its decarbonization strategy immediately.
In the context of the new Cold War, energy security cannot be traded away for costly and unrealistic decarbonization schemes that create dangerous vulnerabilities.