Citing the “hegemonic stability theory,” the author argues that a powerful hegemonic state is necessary to alleviate global poverty. The United States is recognized as the first hegemonic power in history to understand this role, but its limitations are also pointed out. The author posits that Japan should have succeeded the U.S. as a hegemonic power and criticizes the media and the public for Japan’s “lost 20 years,” a missed opportunity.

Hegemonic stability theory… 2010/7/17

According to Wikipedia, hegemonic stability theory is a theory presented by the economist Charles Kindleberger and established by Robert Gilpin. For a world to be stable and to develop economically under the hegemony of a single country, the following three conditions are necessary:

1. One country possesses overwhelming political and economic power, that is, hegemony.
2. The hegemonic state understands the free market and seeks to build an international system to realize it.
3. The international system allows for the enjoyment of benefits by the hegemonic state.

Judging by these conditions, the current United States is indeed a true hegemonic state. 25 years ago, I kept wondering why a hegemonic state exists in the world. The realization came to me suddenly during an eight-day stay with a close friend, when I was looking at the world from Rome.

“Half of the world is still poor. They can’t even eat. That’s why one fiercely prosperous country is necessary,” I thought. And in that way, money flows to places like Africa… I realized that, from the perspective of civilization, it went from Italy to Portugal, Spain, France, the U.K., the U.S., and then the U.S. and Japan. I realized that this was the turntable of civilization.

25 years ago, 50 years after becoming a hegemonic power, the United States sneezed. The U.S. is the first hegemonic power in human history to have recognized its role in helping poor countries grow. Its necessary over-consumption-based economy had gone too far, and its fiscal deficit was expanding. If things continued this way, the world would be in danger. A free country that could stand alongside the U.S. and prosper was needed… there was only Japan. Around that time, we were creating the first civilization in human history with no class, no ideology, and no religion. This was a result of the sacrifice of four million lives, even if only for the short period at the end of the Great War. Assuming the U.S. is a Christian nation, Japan had undeniably created the first civilization in human history.

Now, I think this:

50 years after hegemony shifted from the U.K. to the U.S., the world population had doubled to 6.5 billion people. The U.S. alone can no longer save the world. The U.S. is still crying out for help. “Europe, Japan, China, please expand your domestic demand.” Yet, in 2009, Japanese stock market analysts were commenting, “From now on, we’ll turn away from the U.S. and rely on China.”

It is a tragedy that we didn’t realize that the turntable of civilization had turned to Japan 25 years ago. The media, which failed to see the truth and foolishly waved its foolish sense of justice, bears a heavy responsibility for creating Japan’s lost two decades.

It is customary for a hegemonic state to last 200 years.

To be continued.