This chapter from the 2016 dialogue book Japan, the U.S., Germany — Which Country Will Still Be Standing Ten Years From Now? features Masayuki Takayama and Emi Kawaguchi discussing Japan’s economic strengths—rationalization, ingenuity, and diligence—as well as the strategic importance of marine resources around the Senkaku Islands and Okinotorishima. Kawaguchi sharply criticizes Japan’s unilateral nuclear shutdown as a “suicidal” policy unmatched by any other country and exposes the hard limits of solar and wind power, using Germany’s struggling utilities and distorted renewable statistics as a case study. The dialogue explains baseload power, CO2 backsliding due to new coal plants, and the Japanese media’s “freedom not to report,” arguing that energy policy will determine which industrial nations can truly survive in the coming decade.

No other country but Japan has ever committed the suicidal act of shutting down all nuclear power plants at once, including those with no problems that played an important role in supplying electricity.
June 20, 2024.

The following is from the dialogue book by Masayuki Takayama and Emi Kawaguchi-Maarn, published on October 30, 2016, under the title Japan, the U.S., Germany — Which Country Will Still Be Standing Ten Years From Now?
It is essential reading not only for the Japanese people but for people all over the world.

Japan’s Economic Future Is Bright, But…

Kawaguchi:
What do you think about the Japanese economy?

Takayama:
The Japanese economy has developed through an incredible “spirit of rationalization” and an astounding amount of “ingenuity.”
In addition, the Japanese have a diligence that foreigners will never be able to match.
That is why I believe the future of the Japanese economy is bright.

Kawaguchi:
I cannot be quite that optimistic, though…

Takayama:
When thinking about Japan’s economic future, “marine resources” will be the key.
Recently, it has been found that the Sea of Japan likely holds certain reserves of oil and natural gas, and we have also learned that hydrothermal vents around the Izu Islands contain resources such as gold and other ores.
Similar resources have also been found around Okinotorishima.

Kawaguchi:
Indeed, the longer the time horizon, the more important marine resources become.
That is why China is now seriously trying to seize them.
But offshore drilling technology is extremely difficult.

Takayama:
Take the Senkaku Islands as an example.
Once a United Nations agency survey revealed that the area is a treasure house of oil and natural gas, China moved in.
On the Chinese mainland, there is nothing besides the Great Wall (laughs).
That is why they have worked so hard to seize surrounding resource-rich regions—taking Uyghur, taking Tibet, taking Manchuria, and so on.

Kawaguchi:
Now that its population has grown too large, China is actually a resource-poor country.
There is especially a shortage of water resources.

Takayama:
Exactly.
China is buying up resources in places like Australia, but they are also reaching greedily for the marine resources right in front of them—in Japanese waters.
And supporting such foolish policies, as we will discuss in the next chapter, are the mass media.
The idea is basically that “to destroy Japan, just take away its energy.”
That is why the slogan “shut down the nuclear plants” is, in that sense, an enormous threat.

The ‘Energy Issue’ That Determines Economic Growth

Kawaguchi:
I have been following “the energy issue” closely for the past several years, and I believe Japan’s decision to shut down its nuclear plants is, quite literally, a disastrously wrong choice.
Those who argue that we should abandon nuclear energy often cite Germany as a model, but their understanding is fundamentally mistaken.
They say, “If Germany can do it, why can’t Japan?” but all Germany has said is that it will shut down all nuclear plants “by 2022.”
No other country but Japan has ever committed the suicidal act of shutting down all nuclear power plants at once, including those that had no problems and played a crucial role in power supply.
Safety measures could have been implemented while the plants were running.
That is what all other countries are doing.

Another major misconception is the belief that once we abolish nuclear power, we can make up for it with renewable energy.
Even the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and the Asahi Shimbun write as if that were possible.
But it is “impossible.”
Even Germany has not succeeded in doing so at all.

There are various forms of renewable energy, but the current main sources are “solar” and “wind.”
Both may appear to provide power “for free” at any time, but in reality they are dependent on the weather and thus extremely unstable.
This is a fatal problem that cannot be solved no matter how many solar panels or wind turbines you put up.
Large-scale storage batteries, in their current state, are still far from being practically feasible.

This becomes clearer if we scale things down.
For example, each household could put solar panels on its roof and generate its own power.
However, no matter how large a storage battery they install, their electricity will run out if bad weather continues for a week.
When that happens, those who proudly talked about self-generation say, “It’s fine—if something happens, I’ll just use regular electricity,” and feel safe.
In other words, they take it for granted that the existing power grid will serve as a backup.
On top of that, they do not bear the cost of the transmission infrastructure needed for that backup.

If we look at this from the point of view of the electric power companies, they must maintain power lines and always be on standby “for someone else’s emergency.”
Electricity cannot simply be stored, so they must constantly monitor the weather and consumption trends, predict when that “emergency” might occur, and be ready to respond immediately.
And yet, they are nothing more than unpaid pinch hitters—often without any chance to step up to the plate.
Under these conditions, there is no way for them to make a profit.
As a result, all of Germany’s power companies are deep in the red.

Takayama:
None of this is reported in Japan.

Kawaguchi:
On June 7 of this year, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun wrote, “In Germany, the share of renewable energy has exceeded 30 percent, and dependence on coal-fired power is gradually declining.”
This is extremely strange—so misleading that it could fairly be called propaganda.
The figure of 30 percent is like saying, “The total annual rainfall amounts to so many millimeters.”
But if all that rain fell within three months and caused flooding, and the remaining nine months were drought, it would be useless, wouldn’t it?

What is happening in Germany is exactly that.
When the weather is good, everyone generates power at once, and because all of it must be purchased at fixed prices and given priority on the grid, electricity becomes excessive and the market price collapses.
On top of this, the surplus electricity must be sent somewhere, so they go as far as to pay other countries to take it.
Of course, when there is a shortage, they pay to buy electricity from neighboring countries.
Even if the total yearly generation adds up to 30 percent, that number is meaningless.

Takayama:
There is a huge amount of waste, and economically it does not add up.
This cannot continue for long.

Kawaguchi:
In the first place, electricity supply requires something called “baseload power.”
This is a highly reliable power source that operates continuously throughout the year, regardless of season, weather, or time of day.
It forms the foundation of the power system, and without it, an industrial nation cannot function.
Until now, both Germany and Japan have used nuclear power as their baseload power source.
Japan is currently relying on thermal power.
Renewables, of course, are absolutely incapable of fulfilling this role.
That is why Germany is now hurriedly building more than ten new thermal power plants.
Naturally, this means going backward on the issue of CO2 emissions as well.
But no one reports this.

Takayama:
That is the mass media’s notorious “freedom not to report.”
(To be continued in the next installment.)