From Abe Shinzo’s “Taiwan contingency is a Japan–US contingency” warning to China’s rapid nuclear buildup toward 1,000 warheads by 2030, this column by Sakurai Yoshiko analyzes the mounting strategic danger Japan and the world face.

December 11, 2021
The following is from Sakurai Yoshiko’s regular serialized column that adorns the final page of the December 9 issue of Weekly Shincho.
This essay too proves that she is, in the sense defined by Saichō, a national treasure, the supreme national treasure.
Readers of this essay will have been reminded that Abe Shinzo was a statesman of rare caliber, and one of the foremost political leaders in the world.
Emphasis within the text, except for headings, is mine.

China Shuddered at Abe’s “Taiwan Contingency” Remarks
“Yesterday (December 2), I happened to have dinner with him.
Mr. Suga, Mr. Hagiuda, and Mr. Kato Katsunobu.
It made me very happy to see how very well he was doing,” former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo said of former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide on the December 3 broadcast of “Genron TV.”
Regarding talk that there was a rift between Abe and Suga, he said, “The bond between Mr. Suga and me as human beings and as politicians is something others cannot understand.
I believe we are tied together by an exceptionally strong bond, so there is not even a gap through which a draft could blow.”
Abe expressed in every possible way his gratitude for the fact that, when he had to step down suddenly due to illness, Suga took over after him.
“Mr. Suga accomplished truly outstanding work.
What was thought impossible, one million vaccinations a day, at times actually reached about 1.7 million a day, surpassing the United States.
For my sake, he devoted himself to the office of Chief Cabinet Secretary, forgetting food and sleep.”
Those are words one would like to deliver to Mr. Suga.

Abe returned to his faction for the first time in about ten years.
As the head of the largest faction within the party, his words now have the power to move world politics.
One example is the Taiwan issue.
Under President Xi Jinping, the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan has been the subject of countless analyses throughout the world.
In the midst of this, on December 1, at a symposium hosted by Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research, Abe stated, “A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency, and therefore a contingency for the Japan–US alliance as well.
On this point, President Xi Jinping should never miscalculate.”

The intensity of the Chinese response to this remark was astonishing.
On the night of the 1st, Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying summoned Japan’s Ambassador to China, Hideo Tarumi, and made a “stern representation,” saying that this was “an extremely erroneous remark that crudely interferes in China’s internal affairs.”
“Aimmune to Criticism”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin issued an outrageous comment, saying, “Whoever dares to challenge the red line that the Chinese people will never yield will surely bash his head and spill blood,” and State Council Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang denounced, “Abe Shinzo is twisting black and white.”
From this we can see how much China fears international support for Taiwan.
Abe laughed.
“I have resigned as prime minister and am just one member of the Diet.
So I am greatly honored that such attention has been paid to a remark by someone like me.
I have been subjected to all kinds of criticism up to now, so I have a strong immunity to criticism.
I believe I must continue to say what needs to be said.”

What deserves attention is the report in Global Times, a media organ of the Chinese Communist Party.
They reported, “Kishida must have been informed of Abe’s remarks in advance and tacitly approved them.
Kishida is unable to shake off Abe’s influence, and must continue to use the Taiwan card to curry favor with the United States.”
It is indeed fair to assume that Prime Minister Kishida knew of the content of the remarks in advance and gave his consent.
Abe had met with Kishida at the Kantei the month before the seminar, and I think this time his remarks were the result of a highly sophisticated political teamwork between the current and former prime ministers.

Abe explained the background to his willingness to go so far on the Taiwan issue.
“The importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is a recognition shared by the international community.
However, in October, within just four days, Chinese fighter jets entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone 149 times.
China has increased its military spending forty-two-fold over the past thirty years and is putting pressure on Taiwan.
If, in the worst case, it tries to change the status quo by force and a Taiwan contingency occurs, that is a Japan contingency.
The outlying islands, such as Yonaguni, are just over 100 kilometers away in distance, and this would be an important influence situation under the Peace and Security Legislation, involving the Japan–US alliance.
In other words, a Taiwan contingency would develop into a contingency for the Japan–US alliance.
By making such things clear to the other side, we can help prevent accidental clashes.”

Abe’s statement is one that speaks for the feelings of the international community.
It is a message that, strictly speaking, Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa could have delivered.
Yet because it was Abe who spoke, he was able to shoulder the role of indicating Japan’s position without placing a direct burden on the Kishida administration.
People in Taiwan, as well as Japanese citizens, must have been reassured by those words.
China’s military threat has drawn that close.

Abe gave a persuasive explanation of the new crisis created by the rapid expansion of China’s military power, particularly the sharp increase in its nuclear warheads.
At present the strength of the US military overwhelms that of the Chinese military, but because the United States deploys its forces around the globe, China’s military power is “considerably superior” in this “theater” that includes Japan and Taiwan.
In a comparison of the military strength of Japan and China, Abe pointed out that in surface vessels, submarines, and fighter aircraft, China has nearly twice as many as we do.
However, even if China were superior in this theater around Japan and Taiwan, as long as the United States maintained overwhelming superiority in the global “strategic domain,” China could not make a move.
What determines the balance of power in that strategic domain is nuclear weapons.

Missiles Aimed at Japan
The fact that China is furiously increasing its number of nuclear warheads has already been revealed by the US Congress and the Department of Defense.
By 2030 China’s nuclear warheads will increase from the current 350 to 1,000.
Abe explained the crisis this will bring.
“The United States has 5,500 nuclear warheads, but the New START treaty limits the number that can be deployed to 1,550.
If China possesses and deploys 1,000 nuclear weapons, the balance of power between the United States and China will approach parity.
If the balance in the strategic domain approaches parity while China’s power is superior in the theater, experts point out that there is a concern China may attempt something adventurous.”
In other words, the danger is emerging that China will embark on adventurism.
Moreover, the threat is not only nuclear.
It is also spreading into the domains of cyber, electromagnetic waves, and outer space.

What, then, should Japan do under such circumstances?
Above all, it must first strengthen the defense of the Japanese nation.
To do this, Japan must block the island-chain strategy that China is pursuing.
If China were to seize the First Island Chain, US forces would be unable to approach either the area around Japan or the area around Taiwan.
That is precisely why Japan and the United States must cooperate to hold the First Island Chain.
“To defend the First Island Chain, the basic requirement is the deployment of intermediate-range missiles.
And those missiles should not be American, but our own missiles deployed by our own country.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has the technology to do this,” Abe said.

China has already deployed 2,000 missiles aimed at Japan.
North Korea also possesses ballistic missiles of more than 1,000 kilometers in range, sufficient to target our country.
South Korea, through consultations with the United States, had previously limited the range of its missiles to under 800 kilometers, but this restriction was lifted in May of this year.
South Korea’s missiles too are now able to target Japan.
The region around Japan is currently the area with the highest density of missiles anywhere on earth.
Deploying Japanese-made missiles in order to defend the country by our own efforts is reasonable.
Only with sufficient strength can we protect the lives of our people and our national territory.

Abe’s assertions will probably be fiercely criticized by Asahi Shimbun and others.
However, Abe’s arguments, grounded in reality, are correct, and Prime Minister Kishida, too, will support them.