A U.S. report suggests China may use large-scale military exercises as cover for a sudden seizure of the Senkaku Islands. This “short, sharp war” scenario aims to surprise Japan and the United States, making early detection difficult. A key warning in evolving regional security dynamics.

China’s second operation is the “military exercise scenario.”
2018-01-17
The following continues from the previous chapter.
Now then, according to the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the second and third operations in China’s strategy to attack the Senkaku Islands were as follows.

• China’s second operation is the “military exercise scenario.”
  If the first “maritime law enforcement scenario” fails to achieve the occupation of the Senkaku Islands, the Chinese military has formulated a plan to suddenly launch a “short, sharp war” under the guise of military exercises.
  In this operation, the People’s Liberation Army would conduct large-scale joint land, sea, and air military exercises near the Senkaku Islands, involving the China Coast Guard as well, making Japan and the United States believe they are merely exercises, then striking by surprise and swiftly occupying the Senkaku Islands militarily.
• In the East China Sea, the Chinese military has already continued numerous joint exercises in many maritime areas including around the Senkaku Islands.
  For example, in October 2013, naval units of the People’s Liberation Army conducted a large-scale joint exercise near the Senkaku Islands together with China Coast Guard vessels.
  At that time, the primary military objective appeared to be the protection of numerous Chinese fishing boats.
  Since then, China has conducted joint exercises between its navy and coast guard once or twice every year, always appearing to focus on defensive purposes such as protecting fishing vessels.
  Therefore, neither the U.S. military nor Japan’s Self-Defense Forces can easily predict when China might take actual military action.
  To be continued.