A U.S. report suggests China has developed three possible strategies to seize the Senkaku Islands, culminating in a full-scale amphibious assault resembling a Taiwan invasion scenario. Such planning highlights the potential for major regional conflict and its implications for Japan and U.S. security.

China’s third operational plan regarding the Senkaku Islands is an “amphibious frontal landing scenario.”
2018-01-17
The following continues from the previous chapter.
A complete war.
That, then, is said to be the second Senkaku seizure operation.
Now let us introduce the third.
• China’s third operational plan regarding the Senkaku Islands is an “amphibious frontal landing scenario.”
Looking at the writings of PLA officers and the actual movements of the Chinese military, it becomes clear that the top leadership is also examining a frontal landing operation on the Senkaku Islands similar to an invasion of Taiwan.
The PLA Navy already possesses sufficient landing craft for amphibious operations on remote islands of the Senkaku scale.
The Air Force has adequate strategic airlift capability to conduct airborne operations on the Senkakus, and the Army maintains sufficient helicopter assault capability for rapid deployment to the islands.
In every case, the objective is to militarily occupy the Senkaku Islands and then continue long-term occupation.
The annual report described China’s military intentions and operational preparations for seizing the Senkakus in this way.
Looking at the characteristics of the three operations, the first method involves repeatedly entering Japan’s territorial waters under the guise of “maritime law enforcement” or “regular patrols,” identifying fatigue or laxity in Japan’s defense, and then landing as if merely stopping at islands of its own territory.
From China’s perspective, this appears to be a relatively moderate operation that avoids direct confrontation with Japan.
The second operation is a military attack using military exercises.
It could be described as a disguised operation.
In this scenario, the speed of movement toward occupying the Senkaku Islands would be particularly notable.
In any case, both Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military would assume it is only an exercise, and since the content appears defensive rather than offensive, they would not expect the operation to suddenly transform into an attack.
China is said to be preparing even such surprise tactics.
The third operation can be called a complete war.
If one were to name the single greatest mission of the People’s Liberation Army, it would likely be the conquest of Taiwan.
Mobilizing all three services—land, sea, and air—a large ground force would attack from the front using landing craft.
Additional major forces would support from the air and sea and attack the defending side.
Large numbers of missiles would also be launched.
It is said that an attack plan on the Senkaku Islands resembling such a Taiwan invasion operation has also been devised.
Naturally, such a plan would assume full-scale counterattacks by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
The reason the United States examines and debates China’s military intentions toward the Senkaku Islands in such detail is likely because it sees the issue as one that could significantly affect its own national security.
To be continued.