Former U.S. Navy intelligence director James Fanell testified that China could seize the Senkaku Islands through a “law enforcement” scenario involving coast guard landings and construction of facilities. Backed by naval and air forces, the strategy aims to create faits accomplis and force Japan into a critical decision.

The China Coast Guard will eventually land personnel on the Senkaku Islands and begin constructing public facilities on behalf of China.
2018-01-17
The following continues from the previous chapter.
Colonel Fanell’s testimony.
The report introduced the words of a U.S. expert stating that “China is considering seizure operations against the Senkaku Islands by at least three methods, including ‘short, sharp war’ scenarios.”
This expert was Colonel James Fanell, former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet.
Colonel Fanell provided detailed testimony to the commission on China’s plans to seize the Senkakus.
The core points of his testimony were as follows.
The report positioned these views not merely as those of a single expert but as the commission’s own assessment.

• The first operational plan for attacking and occupying the Senkakus could be called a “maritime law enforcement scenario.”
  While deploying PLA naval units nearby, China would send coast guard and other maritime law enforcement vessels into the Senkaku waters, increasing the level of incursions and proximity to the islands.
  By exhausting the Japan Coast Guard’s blocking operations, Chinese vessels would eventually declare that they are patrolling their own territorial waters under domestic maritime law enforcement and would then land on what they claim as their own territory and carry out that declaration.
• In this scenario, Chinese naval vessels would remain ready to deploy immediately behind the coast guard ships, while air force aircraft would appear overhead to increase pressure on Japan.
  The China Coast Guard would eventually land personnel on the Senkaku Islands and begin constructing public facilities on behalf of China.
  This method resembles the way China seized Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in the South China Sea in 2012.
• In this process, China would seek to avoid full-scale deployment of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and intervention by U.S. forces, while at the same time demonstrating readiness for major combat.
  If Chinese personnel actually land on the Senkakus, Japan would then face the choice of either abandoning its administrative control and allowing Chinese rule or mounting military resistance.
  If military resistance is chosen, the critical issue would be whether to escalate to a level of combat that requires the deployment of U.S. forces.
  This is the first scenario of China’s Senkaku seizure operation as described in the testimony of Colonel Fanell, a senior official of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.
  To be continued.