Japan’s Future Hinges on Ending Deflation: A Warning Against Fiscal Austerity and Political Hesitation

If political resolve to defeat deflation weakens, Japan’s path toward recovery and national revival may collapse.
Fiscal tightening, hesitant monetary policy, and electoral fears threaten Japan’s last opportunity to restore economic strength and break free from prolonged stagnation.

If Prime Minister Abe’s resolve to end deflation weakens, the prospects for Japan’s recovery and revival will collapse.
2018-01-29.
The following is a continuation of the previous chapter.
In fiscal year 2017, post-supplementary expenditures decreased by 1.1 trillion yen from the previous year.
Post-supplementary tax revenue is projected at 57.7 trillion yen, an increase of 2.3 trillion yen compared with fiscal 2016.
In other words, the government has taken a total of 3.4 trillion yen, equivalent to 0.7 percent of GDP in real demand, from the private sector without returning it.
The Bank of Japan, taking into account banks that oppose negative interest rates, is reluctant to encourage lending.
Its “unprecedented monetary policy” has also become routine, and BOJ bureaucrats are cautiously considering reducing the scale of quantitative easing and even withdrawing negative interest rates.
For politicians, the word “inflation” does not necessarily carry a positive resonance.
When former regional revitalization minister Shigeru Ishiba contested Abe for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party, the author recommended a “deflation exit” policy, but Ishiba seriously replied, “If we say prices will rise, housewives will react negatively,” rejecting the idea.
Such is the true sentiment of many LDP lawmakers, which is why they readily support tax increases and fiscal austerity.
Once prices begin to rise in earnest, lawmakers fear the risk of losing voter support.
The LDP presidential election this autumn and the House of Councillors election in the summer of 2019 are approaching.
If Prime Minister Abe’s resolve to overcome deflation weakens, the prospects for Japan’s recovery and revival will collapse.
Etsuro Honda, Japan’s ambassador to Switzerland and Prime Minister Abe’s economic adviser, also does not hide his sense of crisis, stating, “The Abe administration is the last chance to escape deflation. It must break with fiscal austerity.”
Sankei Shimbun special correspondent.

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