Based on an editorial by Sankei Shimbun Editorial Board Chief Satoshi Sakakibara, this article argues that Japan’s general election is not merely a political contest but a decisive choice that will shape deterrence against China and Japan’s response to a potential Taiwan contingency.
China’s fierce reaction to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan highlights the effectiveness of deterrence diplomacy and underscores how the selection of Japan’s prime minister will directly influence national security, the U.S.–Japan alliance, and regional stability in East Asia.

The following is from an editorial by Sankei Shimbun Editorial Board Chief Satoshi Sakakibara published on February 4.
It is essential reading not only for the Japanese people but for people around the world.

An election to choose a prime minister that will determine deterrence against China.

The shadow protagonist of the general election is “China.”
The media, unusually this time, is raising diplomacy and security as major issues.
However, the debate conducted on the media stage is far too naive.
There is a point that Sankei Shimbun has repeatedly emphasized in its editorials.
This general election is about choosing the prime minister who will steer Japan in an era of crisis marked by concern over a Taiwan contingency.
Depending on who becomes prime minister as a result of the election, the degree of safety for Japan and its people will change greatly.

On January 26, China criticized remarks made last November by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi concerning a Taiwan contingency at the United Nations Security Council.
Ambassador Fu Cong stated, “Prime Minister Takaichi’s fallacious remarks regarding Taiwan constitute crude interference in China’s internal affairs, violate the international obligations that Japan, as a defeated nation, must fulfill, and openly challenge the international order.”
It was natural that Japan’s Ambassador Kazuyuki Yamazaki rebutted by saying such remarks were groundless, but the Japanese people should take seriously the implications of China’s extraordinary reaction.

The Chinese Embassy in Japan posted on X last November that if Japan took actions toward an “invasion policy,” “China has the right to take direct military action,” amounting to intimidation.
The persistent criticism of the prime minister’s remarks is proof that Xi Jinping’s China has by no means abandoned the option of militarily subduing Taiwan or annexing it through coercion.
China is raising a shrill voice because it is extremely inconvenient for Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense to assist U.S. forces in the event of a Taiwan contingency.
This means that the prime minister’s remarks are producing effects as deterrent diplomacy.

To prevent the outbreak of a war originating from China, Japan and the United States must continue to demonstrate their will and readiness to defend one another.
The prime minister’s remarks meant that if China were to impose a maritime blockade on Taiwan and use force against U.S. forces coming to break it, such a case could constitute a situation threatening Japan’s survival.
On the 26th, the day before the general election campaign began, Prime Minister Takaichi explained this in greater detail on a TV Asahi program.
Because it is important, I would like to present it almost in full.

“It is not about Japan initiating military action when China and the United States clash.
Taiwan is about as close to Japan as Atami is from Tokyo.
If something serious happens there, we must go to rescue Japanese and Americans in Taiwan.
There may be cases where we act jointly.
If U.S. forces acting jointly are attacked and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces do nothing and retreat, the Japan–U.S. alliance will collapse.
Therefore, within the bounds of the law, we will respond by comprehensively assessing the situation that is occurring.”

What the prime minister says is nothing more than common sense.
If even this cannot be done, the maintenance of the Japan–U.S. alliance will be impossible.
If Japan abandons the alliance, it will immediately stand alone before a group of anti-Japanese, nuclear-armed, and increasingly coordinated authoritarian states—China, Russia, and North Korea.

In short, China’s demand that Prime Minister Takaichi retract her remarks is an overt “attack” on the core of Japan’s national security.
Left-wing forces in Japan such as the Communist Party, Reiwa Shinsengumi, and the Centrist Reform Alliance, which continue to criticize the prime minister’s remarks even during the general election, are not pursuing peace but appear to be echoing China.
If Japan abandons the prime minister’s remarks—that is, abandons attempts at deterrence against China—the United States, Japan’s ally, will be disappointed and drift away.
Voters are not entirely without the freedom to choose that path in the general election.
However, it will come with the heavy price of an increased risk of a Taiwan contingency.
We must also not forget that China regards Japan’s Senkaku Islands (Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture) as part of “Taiwan Province.”
(Editorial Board Chief)