Is the Scenario for Korean Unification Already Complete? — The “Koryo Federation” and Geopolitical Risk

Revisiting a chapter first published on December 12, 2018.
This excerpt discusses North Korea’s unification strategy, President Moon Jae-in’s revolutionary mindset, the concept of a “Koryo Federation,” U.S. troop withdrawal, and China’s geopolitical interests.
It analyzes the structure of inter-Korean relations from the perspective of security, ideology, and historical regression.

2019-01-15
It is said he went to South Korea and stayed for nearly a month.
Hasn’t the scenario for complete inter-Korean unification already been coordinated?
Are they not already effectively one?
The chapter titled “Hasn’t the Scenario for Complete Inter-Korean Unification Already Been Coordinated? They Are Already One,” first published on December 12, 2018, is now ranked sixth in Ameba search results.
The following book is not only required reading for all Japanese citizens but for people around the world.
In this chapter I introduce excerpts from pages 56–57.
Omitted introduction.

Fujii.
This is Professor Furuta’s specialty, but Meng Kyong-il, vice director of North Korea’s United Front Department, reportedly went to South Korea as a member of the PyeongChang Olympic delegation and stayed nearly a month.
Hasn’t the scenario for complete unification already been coordinated?
Are they not already effectively united?

Furuta.
Moon Jae-in sees his administration as a revolutionary regime that overthrew a tyrannical government through the Candlelight Revolution.
At least in spirit, they already see themselves as the South Vietnamese National Liberation Front.

Fujii.
Exactly.
A revolutionary regime to dismantle the anti-communist Republic of Korea.
So the structure becomes North and South Korea versus Japan and the United States.
In the preliminary stage before unification, a “Koryo Federation” would unify security and foreign policy, postponing domestic integration.
If that happens, North Korea gains the upper hand.
If they can push it that far and secure the withdrawal of U.S. forces stationed in Korea, that would be North Korea’s victory.

Furuta.
Even if a federal system were launched, it would take more than ten years to reach a stable condition.
Frankly speaking, neither side has the capacity to unify.
The North is openly an “ancient dynasty,” and the South is an “incompletely modernized state,” making it easy to regress to antiquity.
And the characteristics of antiquity are despotic rule, class hierarchy, and massive construction projects.
This is entirely different from German reunification.
Moreover, it is uncertain whether they can even reach the stage of federation.
China does not welcome inter-Korean unification.

Fujii.
Indeed.
If there is a subtle temperature difference between the two Koreas, it is that the North seeks distance from China, whereas Moon Jae-in of the South does not understand this and believes closeness with China is beneficial.
He may even think that good relations with China serve North Korea’s interests.

Furuta.
I believe so.
As a state that became “islandized” along the 38th parallel, they have little understanding of China.
Unlike the North, they lack practical experience.

Fujii.
From North Korea’s perspective, they might say, “The pro-communist elements in the South still do not understand Juche ideology,” wouldn’t they?

Furuta.
Moon Jae-in does not understand that North Korea has been blocking Chinese expansion.
Omitted continuation.

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