Originally published on February 7, 2020. This article introduces a commentary by Hiroshi Yuasa in the Sankei Shimbun and argues that China’s response to the novel coronavirus exposed the limits of the Chinese-style totalitarian model, its habit of concealment, its neglect of public health, and its lack of capacity to replace the liberal order.

February 7, 2020
China and Russia once mocked the liberal order as “outdated”… The totalitarian regime’s handling of the new virus exposed its lack of capacity to replace it.
The following is from a commentary by Hiroshi Yuasa, published in today’s Sankei Shimbun under the title “China-Style ‘Totalitarianism’ Put to the Test.”
It is an article that not only the Japanese people but people all over the world must read.
The fight against the novel coronavirus has become a test of whether the Chinese-style totalitarian model is effective in the world of the 21st century.
What is being tested is the skill and breadth of mind needed to contain the source of contamination of a terrifying infectious disease, control its spread, and call on the international community for unity.
“The epidemic is a devil, and we cannot let the devil hide.”
Many people must have agreed with this expression of resolve spoken by Chinese President Xi Jinping to WHO Director-General Tedros in Beijing on January 28.
It was then expected that Xi, as the leader of a great power that had become the source of the outbreak, would apologize to the international community and call for cooperation and unity.
That is because the WHO Director-General had gone there as a representative of the world, not as a former foreign minister of Ethiopia, a country receiving economic assistance from China.
Yet Xi’s words betrayed that expectation.
He merely emphasized that he “believed in the objective, fair, calm, and rational assessment of the WHO and the international community,” thereby urging the WHO not to declare a public health emergency.
Tedros, who comes from an aid-recipient country, flattered the major aid-giving power, saying that he admired the Chinese government for having taken “swift and effective measures.”
If he is the person leading the WHO, he should have inspected the situation on the ground in Wuhan in detail, but he merely played a role in the propaganda of the Xi regime.
The New Infectious Disease Is “a Disease of Dictatorship”
What China should have prioritized was not the face-saving dignity of a great power, but the exercise of leadership to prevent a pandemic.
However, Professor Minxin Pei of Claremont McKenna College in the United States had seen through it, saying, “The coronavirus incident is a disease of Chinese-style autocracy.”
He pointed out the chronic disease of totalitarianism, saying that the Xi regime was unable to contain the virus at an early stage because “the survival of a one-party dictatorship depends on secrecy, media suppression, and restrictions on civil liberties.
Because of the need to maintain the authority of the Chinese Communist Party, it instead undermines the safety of China and the world.”
Wuhan, Hubei Province, which was struck by the novel coronavirus, is a metropolis connected to the world, with a population of 11 million and with many advancing companies located there.
It is hard to believe that the Chinese leadership did not have in mind the risk that the infectious disease would spread to the world, since it came precisely during the travel season for the Spring Festival, the Lunar New Year.
The virus had already traveled with suitcases to three continents, spreading an invisible threat.
Even after the first case was reported on December 8 of the previous year, the local Wuhan Municipal Health Commission suppressed the official notice because of the Communist Party’s characteristic “habit of concealment.”
Since then, the Wuhan authorities made light of the symptoms, and even after the first death was reported on January 11, they continued to insist that there was no human-to-human transmission.
Eventually, when the authorities realized that negligence in containment efforts would instead lead to damage to the image of the Chinese Communist Party and higher costs, they finally shifted gears after January 20.
Industrial Policy Prioritized Over Public Health
According to Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, the spread of the new virus is testing the resilience of state capitalism, which, together with authoritarian leadership, brought about 40 years of record economic growth.
Indeed, under the banner of President Xi Jinping’s “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” China has poured tens of billions of dollars into research in cutting-edge medicine, including gene therapy and cancer research.
That is because cutting-edge biomedicine is one of the indispensable fields in “Made in China 2025,” the industrial policy aimed at surpassing the United States and achieving a dominant position.
However, even though China pours money into cutting-edge medicine, public health for ordinary citizens remains bleak.
The spread of this new virus is also the price paid for having neglected public health, including unsanitary markets that provide wild animals and outdated medical conditions in rural areas.
Worse still, even a “virus escape theory” has emerged, claiming that the source of infection was a virus leaked from the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, the latest facility of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, located about 30 kilometers from the seafood market believed to be the original source.
The ad hoc response to African swine fever, or ASF, which led to the culling of nearly half of China’s pigs, had only just exposed the dysfunction of the government.
What was thrown in as compensation was countless pieces of large heavy machinery and prefabricated building materials roaring across a vast site in Wuhan.
Because the medical institutions in the city were bursting at the seams, a hospital for patients of the new virus was to be completed in only 10 days in a makeshift, last-minute manner.
The regime had to absorb the dissatisfaction of the people and demonstrate the power of the Communist Party system.
The Lack of Capacity of Strong-State Dictatorship Exposed
The greatest concern of China’s leadership is the economic slump that is being deeply aggravated by the spread of the new virus.
If the economy stalls, the legitimacy of the Communist Party system could be lost.
An editorial in an American newspaper even predicts that if the new virus continues to spread, China could fall into recession.
China, suffering from accumulated debt, cannot possibly realize Xi’s plan to double incomes unless it recovers from 6.0 percent growth.
If growth in 2019 and 2020 had been 6.2 percent, the goal of doubling incomes over the 10 years up to 2020 should have been achieved.
However, the growth rate in 2019 slowed in manufacturing, services, and household consumption, remaining at 6.1 percent.
In 2020 as well, with the additional blow of the new virus, a decline in consumption is unavoidable.
Economists forecast that if consumption falls by 10 percent, real GDP growth for the January–March quarter of this year will drop into the 4 percent range.
Moreover, the decoupling of supply chains that began with U.S.-China trade friction will likely accelerate further.
China and Russia, which form a quasi-alliance, once mocked the liberal order as “outdated.”
It was a declaration that the governance model of strong-state dictatorship would overwhelm declining democracy.
However, the totalitarian regime’s handling of the new virus exposed its lack of capacity to replace it.