2024/03/21

Repost! She Is a National Treasure as Defined by Saichō, and a Supreme National Treasure.
She is a national treasure as defined by Saichō, and a supreme national treasure.
2021/3/2
She is a national treasure as defined by Saichō, and a supreme national treasure.
The following is from Yoshiko Sakurai’s serial column, which concludes the issue of Shūkan Shinchō released yesterday.
This article, too, proves that she is a supreme national treasure as defined by Saichō.
It is essential reading not only for the Japanese people but also for people throughout the world.
Professor Kennedy: “The United States Will Not Decline”
On March 9, I took part in a three-way discussion with Professor Paul Kennedy at an international seminar entitled “Is the United States in Decline?”
Professor Kennedy, who participated remotely from his home near Yale University in Connecticut in the eastern United States, had prepared early and was checking the audio.
We had done the same, and both sides were ready well ahead of schedule.
I introduced myself and asked, “Shall we begin, if you are ready?”
Then, with a very cheerful expression, Professor Kennedy replied, “Let’s do it!”
When I hear the name Paul Kennedy, I immediately think of the two volumes of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
This book, which describes the rise and fall of great powers from 1500 to 2000, became an international bestseller.
I have the 1988 edition published by Sōshisha and translated by Chikara Suzuki.
At the time, I contributed to Bungeishunjū and Shokun!, but I still had a long way to go as a writer, and Professor Kennedy was a shining presence.
That very person had completed his preparations and responded warmly, ready to begin at once.
Is the United States in decline?
If it is declining, will it continue to decline?
For Japan, no questions could be more pressing than these.
After all, Japan’s security cannot be discussed without considering its relationship with the United States.
Whether the Chinese Communist Party can be prevented from dominating the world is a critical question that will determine the fate of Japan and the world as a whole.
Professor Kennedy suggested that we first look back 500 years.
Five hundred years ago, China was the largest country in the world.
From the nineteenth century onward, the world’s major powers came to dominate the entire world, and Japan and the United States gained strength within this new configuration.
In the twentieth century, the First World War weakened Europe, while the United States and Japan gained strength.
In the twentieth century, the First World War weakened Europe, while the United States and Japan gained strength.
In the Second World War, the United States became a superpower, while Japan suffered defeat, lost millions of its people, and fell to the level of the world’s poorest countries.
China is disappointed.
After the war, Japan rose again as a world power, and the United States led the Soviet Union toward collapse and became the sole superpower.
Nevertheless, the entire world is trying to assess the reality of America’s power and its future.
Against this backdrop, China has actively promoted the theory of American decline.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, known as a pro-China politician, points out that Xi Jinping’s policy toward the United States has remained consistent since he became president in 2013, and that its underlying premise is that the tide of history is flowing in China’s favor (Foreign Affairs, March–April 2009).
Rudd stated that China, which has already declared that it will surpass the United States and stand at the pinnacle of the world in 2049, the centenary of its founding, is moving ahead of schedule in many areas on its path to becoming the world’s most powerful nation.
For example, military modernization will be completed in another six years, by 2015, eight years ahead of schedule.
This substantial acceleration is intended to secure an advantage over the United States in every respect when attempting to seize Taiwan.
Rudd writes that China is surprised that the American counteroffensive has been more limited than expected.
China has set specific goals for undermining American superiority and is steadily implementing them one by one.
When I asked Professor Kennedy what he thought about China’s vigorous promotion of the theory of American decline, he replied that Chinese media have an extraordinary interest in writing about America’s decline because they want to witness it without going to war.
China’s efforts to spread the theory of American decline are probably part of its favored “Three Warfares”: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare.
By creating the impression that American power is weakening, China may undermine confidence in the United States, draw more countries toward itself, and even drive a wedge into America’s alliances.
This is probably one way of making people believe that China is more dependable than the United States.
After making these observations, Professor Kennedy stated unequivocally:
“America’s decline is relative, not absolute. The United States may have to share its position with other rising powers, but it will remain a strong country. In that sense, China will be disappointed.”
Professor Kennedy said that the United States would not lose to China, and that the source of its strength was its strong economy.
The professor emphasizes that the United States can achieve remarkable economic growth and bring prosperity to the American people.
This will restore confidence in the American government, renew respect and esteem for democracy, and contribute to the stability of the nation as a whole.
Japan’s Path Forward
However, the professor predicted that the United States would need to cooperate with its allies to confront China, and he highly praised Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for envisioning a framework for cooperation among Japan, the United States, Australia, and India.
Looking back at history, there are similar examples.
Before the First World War, Germany built numerous warships and developed a large navy.
France, Britain, Russia, and others became wary, and this eventually led to the First World War.
History shows us the outcome.
Another similar example is the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The Soviet Union, too, expanded its navy and advanced into the Mediterranean.
In response, the United States, Britain, France, Italy, and others cooperated closely to prevent aggressive Soviet activities.
The Quad comprising Japan, the United States, Australia, and India, Britain’s willingness to join it, and even the positive responses to the Quad from France and Germany were all prompted by China’s aggressive expansion.
To paraphrase Professor Kennedy’s historical examples, the side that initiates reckless friction loses.
In other words, in the crisis now unfolding, the loser is China.
On the 15th, when I wrote this article, the American secretaries of state and defense visited Japan for the Japan–U.S. Security Consultative Committee meeting, known as the “2+2.”
The document “Reaffirming the Unwavering Japan–U.S. Alliance,” released by the American government on April 14, clearly states that “America’s commitment to Japan’s defense is unwavering,” “Article V of the Japan–U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands,” and “Japan and the United States will cooperate in responding to challenges posed by China.”
There were concerns that the Biden administration might be a return to the Obama administration’s conciliatory approach toward China.
However, the contents of the document mentioned above, the realization of the “2+2” meeting, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s visit to Washington as the first leader to attend a summit all dispel such doubts.
Professor Kennedy said that if Japan’s economic relationship with China deteriorates, alternatives exist, but if Japan’s security relationship with the United States deteriorates, there is no alternative.
He is right.
Through this three-way discussion, I came to believe that Japan must carry out major reforms, including constitutional revision, if it is to survive as a proper nation amid the great currents of history.