The following is from an article by Tetsuji Tanaka, Chairman of the China Research Institute, which appeared in yesterday’s Sankei Shimbun under the title “Tensions” between China and Russia in the background.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is the best article in yesterday’s edition.
It is a must-read not only for Japanese citizens but also for people around the world.
Everyone who reads this article will feel the scales fall from their eyes.
The emphasis in the text other than the headline is mine.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the invasion of Ukraine is aimed not only at preventing the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) but also at eliminating the Ukrainian regime, which is close to the Chinese government of Xi Jinping.
Although China and Russia ostensibly have a “honeymoon” relationship, there are historical and geopolitical tensions that have yet to reach the point of true friendship.
Ukraine is an important location for both China and Russia.
China wants to create a land Silk Road that will pass through Afghanistan to Europe under its “One Belt, One Road” megalopolis concept.
Ukraine is its most important strategic point, and China has been relentlessly approaching it.
China purchased from Ukraine a decommissioned aircraft carrier, which later became China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and in 2013 signed an agreement with Ukraine that includes cooperation on nuclear issues.
In Eastern Ukraine, China has embarked on a long-term lease plan for 3 million hectares of grain farmland and has begun excavation work on a port to export grain to China.
This port is located north of the home port of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet on the Crimean Peninsula, and it was assumed that the Chinese navy might sail in the vicinity.
Some believe that Putin’s haste to annex Crimea in 2002 was intended to thwart China’s moves, and as a result, most of China’s plans have been halted.
On the other hand, Ukraine is a brother state of the same Slavic ethnicity as Russia.
Ukraine is “the front yard of Russian space,” There is a strong sense that the Ukrainian problem is “an internal affair of the Russian circle.
Mr. Putin has been wary of China’s growing influence in such a “sworn brother” country.
It was reported that approximately 7,000 Chinese fled Ukraine after the invasion, proof that the One Belt, One Road project has been revived under the current Zelensky administration.　
In some respects, Mr. Putin has shown through the invasion that “it will hurt a regime close to China.”
However, the war situation in Russia is not good. Sanctions, including a freeze on the central bank’s assets, were unexpected.
China, hoping to prevent the collapse of the Russian regime in the form of a democratic revolution, is carefully watching the situation.
For the time being, ceasefire talks are likely to focus on non-accession to NATO and neutralization. 
China, which can engage in dialogue with both countries, is likely to take advantage of Russia’s predicament to get involved in the negotiations.
(Interview by Tomo Kuwamura)