2021/3/15
The following is from a book published by Masahiro Miyazaki and Tetsuya Watanabe titled Civil War or Communist Revolution, America’s Looming Nightmare Choice. 
This book is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but also for people worldwide.
Japanese citizens should head to their nearest bookstore to subscribe.
I will let the rest of the world know as much as possible.
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Is the era of “decarbonization in 2050” really coming?
Miyazaki 
I want to predict the risks and opportunities for the Japanese economy and companies in this chapter.
There are five significant risks to the Japanese economy in the global reset caused by the Corona disaster. 
They are electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, dependence on China, stock market crash, and yen appreciation. 
First, Japan declared it will be “carbon-free” by 2050. 
So, “carbon zero” has become the new goal for Japan. 
From a historical perspective, the first revolution was the reform and improvement of the agricultural sector and its rapid production. 
The second revolution was the Industrial Revolution, with the invention of the steam engine.
If the third revolution was the communication revolution with the IT and communication revolution, carbon zero is the “fourth revolution.” 
However, I wonder if they are serious when they declare that they aim for carbon zero by 2050.
Watanabe. 
The beginning of the zero-carbon movement is the environmental concession created by Gore of the Democratic Party of the United States. 
When Vice President Gore became a candidate for the presidency, he created a system to trade the right to dispose of waste as a business between emerging and developed countries.
The Paris Agreement was the platform to make this happen. 
The U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement after the Trump administration came to power because environmental interests were a voting block for the Democratic Party. 
On the other hand, mining technology has made it possible to extract shale oil and shale gas, turning the United States into an oil-producing country.
The United States, once an energy importer, has become an energy exporter. 
Carbon Zero is in direct conflict with this trend.
Miyazaki 
In this context, the United States has been the most skeptical about EVs; even now, it is not very enthusiastic about them.
However, after Biden took office, the environment changed drastically, and there was shocking news that GM will make all of its cars EVs by 2035. 
From a diplomatic point of view, the fact that the U.S. has become an energy-exporting country, thanks to Trump’s valiant efforts, shows the importance of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Arab countries and the decline of their influence. 
It is the most critical point in international politics: the United States can now support Israel openly.
It is against this background that the U.S. can now openly condemn Iran.
Watanabe 
It means they no longer have to buy oil from the Middle East.
At the same time, from the standpoint of the oil-producing countries, a Paris Agreement that diminishes their value will only negatively impact them. 
First, there is a big question as to whether CO2 is the only cause of global warming. 
Besides, if we don’t regulate China, the largest emitter of CO2 and the biggest polluter of plastic waste, how much of an effect will it have? 
Despite the talk of global warming, China has been hit by a significant cold wave this winter.
Miyazaki 
Japan is also being attacked (laughs).
We had heavy snowfall from northern Japan to the Hokuriku region since last year was paralyzing. 
I’m from Kanazawa, so I have experience with heavy snow disasters. 
It is an island of land.
Watanabe 
Because of this cold wave, a significant policy shift has occurred in China. 
But the beginning was caused by the fact that they stopped importing coal from Australia because of the sanctions.
Australian coal is of very high quality and has very few impurities.
The domestic coal from other countries and China is full of sulfur and needs better quality.
Miyazaki. 
They are also importing from Mongolia.
Watanabe 
In the end, that doesn’t fit the bill, and if they burn coal with many impurities from other countries in a furnace that is adjusted to Australian coal, it will burn.
Electric Vehicles and the Limits of Green Energy
Watanabe 
If you’ve ever taken a cell phone to a ski resort, you know that a cell phone that usually lasts for 10 hours will lose its signal in 30 minutes.
When it is too cold, the battery discharges due to the low temperature and becomes inefficient. 
Tesla’s EVs, which should run 150 km on a full charge, stop after about 30 km.
Miyazaki 
In Japan, electric vehicles were the first to fail on the Tohoku Expressway, which was shut down by snow. 
In January 2021, we witnessed a new highway crisis disrupted by the heavy snowfall that hit northern Japan and the Hokuriku region, with thousands of trucks unable to move and logistics interrupted.
EVs ran out of fuel in many places, and the limits of electric vehicles became apparent, but the media didn’t cover it too much. 
The reality is that battery technology still needs to be completed, and there is an overwhelming shortage of charging stations.
Even if gasoline-powered cars are phased out, hybrid vehicles will probably continue to dominate.
Watanabe 
China had a westerly wind from Siberia, so they expected wind power generation, but the windmill would freeze because it was too cold. Even if they tried to melt it, wind power generation is only possible with the initial power source. It is not rotating.
So it doesn’t work during the winter.
Miyazaki 
It’s the same with solar panels.
Watanabe 
They can only be used when the weather is good. 
Especially in areas where it snows, the snow piles up on the panels, so they don’t generate electricity.
Miyazaki 
Another cause in China is air pollution, which causes dust in the air to collect on the panels.
That makes it less efficient, and it becomes impossible to generate electricity from solar panels (laughs).
Watanabe 
This cold wave has brought out a lot of problems. 
In Japan, the many wind and flood disasters have exposed the problems with solar power generation over the past four to five years. 
For example, the solar panels that were laid on the dikes caused the banks to lose their water retention capacity, and the banks broke down. 
It wiped out a large-scale power generation facility because it was submerged in water. 
Solar panels are notoriously challenging, and once they burn, they emit toxic gases that cannot be touched until they burn out.
If they are washed away by heavy rain, they will continue to generate electricity while being washed away, so you can’t go near them for fear of electric shock. 
Furthermore, it has a very high environmental load, with a useful life of about 15 years.
Besides, some people are concerned about nuclear waste, but solar panels also contain toxic substances such as lead, selenium, and cadmium, depending on the type.
Like nuclear waste, they are a big problem. How are we going to deal with this? As for solar power generation, the issue of disposal will probably erupt in the future. 
Even if we only look at the processing cost, we are still determining how much the processing cost of solar panels will be at the same time as the processing cost of nuclear waste.
Miyazaki 
Panasonic has also announced that it will withdraw from the solar cell business by the end of fiscal 2021.
There was a lot of expectation for “green energy” and “soft energy path,” but now we realize that it was only a dream for a while.
Watanabe 
That’s right.
There is a move to stop the connection of solar panels to existing power distribution lines in Australia.
The reason is that the electricity produced by solar power is very noisy.
Many people look at power only in terms of watts, but the presence of noise is significant.
Without noiseless and stable power, it is useless in the end.
Noise is the reason why old fluorescent lights used to flicker. It’s a matter of the quality of the power. 
If there is a lot of noise called flicker, we cannot use it in industrial or precision machinery applications. 
On the other hand, problems have also arisen in places like Kyushu, where sunshine is abundant and too much electricity is generated in the summer.
Electricity, even too much of it, disturbs the frequency, so we start to stop accepting it in the summer. So we can’t increase solar power anymore.
Miyazaki 
In the case of China, there was a boom because of the subsidies.
Watanabe 
The same is true in Japan. In addition to subsidies, we established a feed-in tariff system, and the initial purchase price was very high, over 40 yen, but it has been dropping rapidly, and in 2021, the price will be less than 10 yen.
Ultimately, they have created a model where people can make money by investing in solar power generation equipment. 
Many people want to make money from this and have turned anti-nuclear.
Miyazaki 
Everyone does shallow things, don’t they?
Everyone is doing something shallow.
This article continues.