This essay highlights the central weakness of Prime Minister Kishida’s diplomacy: imposing sanctions without reinforcing deterrence.
Dictators are tempted to provoke or interfere with neighboring countries when they sense “weakness,” making ambiguity extremely dangerous.
As Japan deepens ties with Europe and NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it must strengthen its defense posture or risk inviting aggression from China and Russia.
To safeguard the liberal international order and prevent a Ukraine-style crisis in Asia, Japan must avoid creating power vacuums and maintain a robust balance of power with its allies.

The vulnerability of Prime Minister Kishida’s diplomacy lies in the fact that he talks tough on economic sanctions but fails to prepare a deterrent posture that matches his rhetoric.
Diplomacy cannot be strong if it lacks the military strength that supports it, and instead the ground beneath one’s feet becomes more precarious.

Strong Japan–Europe solidarity

Prime Minister Kishida’s newly announced sanctions against Russia add more individuals to the asset-freeze list, expand organizations subject to export bans, and prohibit the export of advanced technology.
He has emphasized that Japan has “shifted its policy toward Russia,” based on the recognition that aggression by authoritarian states may occur in “tomorrow’s Asia.”
This was an appropriate warning to China, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson protested that Japan was “exaggerating the China threat to justify strengthening its national power.”

Kishida visited three Southeast Asian nations—Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand—calling for international unity against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and stressing that unilateral attempts to change the status quo cannot be tolerated anywhere.
In the United Kingdom, he reached a broad agreement on a Reciprocal Access Agreement to strengthen cooperation between the Self-Defense Forces and the British military, paving the way for a quasi-alliance between Japan and the UK.

Last year, the UK, Germany, and France dispatched naval vessels to the Indo-Pacific in response to China’s rise and shifting power balances, dramatically strengthening Japan–Europe relations.
During the current Ukraine crisis, Foreign Minister Hayashi attended a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting for the first time as a “partner country,” elevating Japan’s involvement with Europe to a new level.
Challenges to the liberal international order cannot be considered separately from the Indo-Pacific region.

Do not show weakness to Russia

However, the greater NATO’s expectations of Japan become, the greater the disappointment will be if Japan’s actions fail to meet those expectations.
Germany, another neighbor of Russia, has undergone dramatic military change, committing to raise defense spending to more than 2 percent of GDP and deciding to provide offensive weapons to Ukraine.
Dictators are tempted to interfere with or provoke neighboring states when they sense “weakness,” and therefore taking an ambiguous stance is dangerous.
If Japan’s posture is perceived merely as bluff, China and Russia—who believe that “might makes right”—will find an opening to bare their fangs.

Russia has already intruded into Japanese airspace with helicopters over waters near Hokkaido, and Russian naval vessels have passed through the Tsugaru, Soya, and Tsushima straits.
In the Northern Territories, Russia has conducted military exercises twice and announced successful cruise missile launch tests by two submarines in the Sea of Japan.

Putin’s external conduct begins by probing the vulnerability of his counterpart.
If the other side yields, he interprets that as a sign of weakness.
Therefore, neighboring countries must never show weakness and must instead work together to maintain a “balance of power.”
(From the May 9, 2022 essay “This Week’s Words” by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals)