This preface by Emi Kawaguchi reflects on the dramatic transformation of global power structures since the Cold War, when Japan was criticized as an “overreaching economic superpower” and China remained a “poverty-stricken giant.” Kawaguchi describes her growing skepticism toward German media narratives, Japan’s dangerous indifference to the Senkaku crisis, and the looming fragmentation of the EU amid U.S.–Russian maneuvering. She praises Masayuki Takayama’s unrivaled analytical skill, narrative clarity, and historical insight, noting his influence on her own increasingly critical worldview. The chapter asks a provocative question: among Japan, the United States, and Germany, which nation will still remain strong ten years from now?

During the Cold War, when the United States and the Soviet Union stood face-to-face, Japan was bashed as an “overly assertive economic superpower,” while China was nothing more than an Asian “poverty-stricken giant.”
June 19, 2024.

The following is from the preface written by Ms. Kawaguchi, co-author of the book introduced below.
Her evaluation of Masayuki Takayama is exactly the same as that held by many people, myself included.
It is essential reading for the Japanese people and for readers around the world.

“Ms. Kawaguchi, you used to be a bit more pro-German, didn’t you?”
This is what Mr. Masayuki Takayama recently pointed out to me.
Indeed, over the past ten years, as I began following German news in detail, my doubts about its credibility grew rapidly.
In Germany, whether public or private, there is always a stark gap between outward appearances and true intentions.
Moreover, because the outward façade is exceptionally noble, honest Japanese people are easily deceived.
I myself used to be honest and naïve, so I understand this very well.

The Volkswagen emissions-cheating software scandal was an example in which the Germans’ true intentions were inadvertently exposed.
Had it not been uncovered, it would likely have been celebrated as “excellent German engineering that developed clean diesel technology out of care for the environment.”
Even Germans, at times, make mistakes.

What shocked me most recently was that while hundreds of Chinese vessels were swarming around the Senkaku Islands, the Japanese media joyfully devoted themselves entirely to coverage of the Rio Olympics.
In Germany, too, the Olympics were a major topic, but that did not mean other news was pushed aside.

In my mind, national defense is more important than an Olympic gold medal.
And at the Senkakus, that national defense is being gravely threatened.
Yet, for some reason, this does not become the top priority for the Japanese people.
Is there any cure for this “peace-dazed” condition?

One must not forget that the countries expressing “concern” about Japan’s so-called remilitarization—including Germany—are all themselves major military powers.

Mr. Takayama’s long-running column “Henken Jizai” in Shukan Shincho is one of my favorites.
Beyond his reporting abilities, his skill lies in taking events occurring in various parts of the world—across different time axes—and combining them to reveal their common threads.
Historical facts unknown to most people appear one after another.
He harshly criticizes great powers and major figures, yet with a certain humor that leaves no unpleasant aftertaste.
He does not flaunt moral superiority.
This sensibility is impossible for anyone else to imitate.
Even when he once wrote an anonymous column for a certain magazine, readers immediately pictured his face as soon as they read it, so anonymity proved impossible.

It is therefore a great pleasure to have the opportunity to engage in a dialogue with Mr. Takayama.

I moved to Germany in 1982.
At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union faced each other in the middle of the Cold War.
Japan was being bashed as an overreaching “economic superpower,” and China was merely a “poverty giant” in Asia.
How drastically the world has changed in these thirty-odd years.

Today, the world is entering an era of upheaval.
The EU, which was built upon lofty ideals, is on the verge of breaking apart.
In the Middle East, and even along the eastern edge of the EU, war could break out at any time.
Behind all this, even if somewhat frayed, the United States and Russia continue pulling the strings.
Asia, of course, is also unstable.
And amid this turbulence, only the Japanese people are leisurely watching the Olympics.

This book thus takes on the grand theme: “Japan, the U.S., Germany — which nation will still be standing ten years from now?”
Whether our predictions prove right or wrong, I hope to stretch my imagination to its fullest, borrowing the insight and authority of Mr. Takayama.
In any case, I suspect that my current attitude—questioning absolutely everything—has been unconsciously influenced more than a little by him.

September, 2016.
In the clear autumn skies of Stuttgart.
Emi Kawaromān Kawaguchi.