This article presents Sekihei’s analysis of Japan’s repeated failures to secure the Senkaku Islands, despite having overwhelming diplomatic leverage in 1972 and 1978 when China urgently needed normalization, ODA, and Japanese technology for its reform and opening-up policies. The column argues that Japan’s acceptance of Deng Xiaoping’s “shelving” proposal forfeited a historic opportunity and now leaves the Senkaku vulnerable amid China’s increasing assertiveness. With the possibility of a Taiwan invasion and subsequent move on the Senkaku Islands, Sekihei stresses that Japan’s true challenge is the national resolve of its people to defend their territory.

In order to advance its reform and opening-up policy, China concluded a peace and friendship treaty with Japan and sought Japanese ODA and advanced technology.
2021/8/24
The following is from today’s Sankei Shimbun column written by Sekihei.
~ marks are mine.
Japan missed two chances to “resolve the Senkaku issue.”
“Chinese government vessels repeatedly intrude into the territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands, which are our inherent territory. The Japan Coast Guard has defended them desperately, but the government merely offers verbal protests of ‘regret.’”
The Senkaku Islands are, historically and under international law, unmistakably Japanese territory. They have never been Chinese territory.
Unlike the so-called “novelist” Hirano Keiichiro—whose mind has been shaped by Asahi Shimbun’s editorials and who has contributed greatly to lowering the market value of Kyoto University—there is Ishii Nozomu, a graduate of Kyoto University’s Department of Chinese Language and Literature and now associate professor at Nagasaki Junshin Catholic University.
His career is no accident. In One Hundred Rebuttal Manuals on the Senkaku, he examined all historical materials from both Japan and China and demonstrated that the Senkaku Islands belong to Japan.
He is, in the sense defined by Saichō, a Kokuhō—a supreme national treasure.
If Japan had political leaders comparable to the three great figures of Owari, they would long ago have translated and published his works in multiple languages.
Because such things have not been done, Japan continues to be manipulated by a vile and foolish mass media.
These media, along with the so-called intellectuals who agree with them, have long said “Learn from Germany,” yet they have never once mentioned that postwar Germany’s international presence was built on political stability through the long-term rule of the CDU.
These people, who cannot grasp even such elementary matters, are hopeless adherents of a masochistic historical view—hence their anti-Japanese ideology.
This article continues.
Even so, the Japanese government remains fixated on a policy of avoiding conflict, unable even to station a single civil servant on the islands, let alone the Self-Defense Forces.
Whether disguised fishermen or military personnel come first is unclear, but China may someday land personnel on the Senkaku Islands.
When that happens, will Japan’s top leader immediately order the Self-Defense Forces to defend the territory?
Judging from the government’s indecisive responses to COVID-19 and the Tokyo Olympics, it is difficult to imagine such resolute action. In the end, Japan will rely on the U.S. military.
Indeed, President Biden has clearly stated that the Senkaku Islands fall under Article 5 of the Japan–U.S. Security Treaty, which stipulates mutual defense obligations.
However, that is premised on the islands being under Japan’s administration.
Japan has exercised effective control over the Senkaku Islands, but the situation is becoming precarious. Whether the international community will recognize Japan’s claim is uncertain.
“Japan missed at least two chances to resolve this issue.”
The first was during the 1972 negotiations on the normalization of diplomatic relations. At that time, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai told Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, “I do not want to talk about the Senkaku issue now.”
It was China that was isolated internationally and desperate to normalize relations.
Japan had no need to rush.
Tanaka should have said, “Withdraw your claim to the Senkaku Islands. If not, these negotiations are over,” and walked out.
The second time was in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping, China’s supreme leader, visited Japan. China was again the one in a difficult position.
To advance his reform and opening-up policy, Deng sought a peace and friendship treaty with Japan, along with Japanese ODA and advanced technology—he wanted them desperately.
However, the Japanese government accepted Deng’s proposal of “shelving” the Senkaku issue, thus abandoning the chance to settle the matter.
It is only natural that Japan is criticized for taking its territorial issues—its national foundation—too lightly. From the perspective of international norms, Japan’s actions are unbelievable.
“How will China act on the Senkaku issue in the future, and how should Japan prepare?”
For China, Taiwan comes first.
Xi Jinping is an overconfident dictator who pays no heed to international criticism.
There is a possibility that he may gamble and invade Taiwan. Depending on how the U.S. military responds, China’s next target could be the Senkaku Islands.
What should Japan do?
It is not the government but “the resolve of the Japanese people” that will be tested.
Do we wish to defend our territory even if it means engaging in armed conflict with China—or not?
That is the kind of resolve required.