This essay examines the gap between media influence and factual analysis in Japan, contrasting Asahi Shimbun with WiLL. Drawing on Germany’s energy data, it exposes the weaknesses in former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s claims about renewable energy and highlights their economic and social consequences.

2016-03-16

The core problem lies, for example, in the fact that Asahi Shimbun still has a circulation of around six million copies, while WiLL has only about 110,000 copies in circulation (as of 2011).

This reflects the existence of a situation in which media outlets that ignore or conceal facts in order to realize their distorted ideologies are supported by entrepreneurs who manipulate them—profiting enormously themselves while weakening Japan’s world-class corporations, effectively subsidizing competitors in rival countries, and continuously undermining Japan’s national strength.

What follows is a continuation of the previous chapter.
All emphasis in the text, except for the headings, is mine.

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“Renewable Energy Poverty”

“Japan has the wisdom, technology, and indomitable spirit to turn crisis into opportunity.
Even our current dependence on nuclear power can be transformed within thirty years so that natural energy alone will fully cover our needs.”

Why can he assert that it can be transformed so definitively?

No concrete data or explanation is presented to support this claim.

“It’s a lie that natural energy is unstable. I went all the way to Germany to see it. Better and better systems are being developed.”

But what exactly was better?
Which power plants did he visit, and what did he actually see?

He says none of this.

The defining feature of Mr. 小泉純一郎’s statements is that they are superficial, filled with catchy one-liners, and utterly empty of substance.

Before the Great East Japan Earthquake, Germany had 15 nuclear reactors in operation, supplying 25 percent of its total electricity generation.

After the disaster, this number was reduced to seven reactors, yet they continue operating at a 99 percent capacity factor, supplying 15 percent of total electricity generation.

When nuclear power accounted for 25 percent of total generation, Germany installed new solar power facilities with a total capacity equal to 1.5 times that of its nuclear plants.

And how much electricity did those solar facilities actually supply?

Only five percent of total generation.

Given that the installed capacity was 1.5 times that of nuclear power, one would expect at least 30 percent of electricity generation.

However, solar power cannot generate electricity during cloudy or rainy weather, in the evening, or at night.
Not only solar but all renewable energy sources fluctuate greatly and cannot store electricity, requiring backup power sources.

As a result, nearly half of Germany’s electricity now comes from coal-fired power plants, leading to a serious increase in CO₂ emissions.

The more renewable energy is promoted, the more CO₂ emissions increase, causing air pollution.

This contradiction is known as the “green paradox.”

Germany can rely on coal-fired power generation using inexpensive domestic coal, but Japan has no such domestic resources.

Japan therefore faces double investment costs—installing both solar and thermal power facilities—while the utilization rate of backup thermal plants declines, resulting in extremely poor economic efficiency.

Germany introduced a feed-in tariff (FIT) system for renewable energy purchases as early as 1992 and has actively promoted renewables for over twenty years, yet their share of total electricity generation remains at only about 20 percent.

Looking at Germany’s FIT surcharge (see graph), it is clear that costs increased rapidly up to 2014.

Germany’s electricity prices have doubled over the past ten years due to the introduction of renewable energy purchase schemes.

This is rarely reported in Japanese media, but during Germany’s September 2013 federal election, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel was strongly criticized by opposition parties using the term “Renewable Poverty.”

Who suffers most from rising electricity prices?

It is the socially vulnerable.
Indeed, such phenomena are already occurring in Germany.

Renewable energy is now regarded as imposing the greatest sacrifices on the most vulnerable members of society.

What Germany’s experience clearly shows is that, at the present stage, placing renewable energy at the core of national energy policy imposes excessive economic burdens on the public.

Even though industrial electricity prices in Germany are set lower than household rates, they are still high compared to other countries.
As a result, many German companies have relocated factories to border regions near the Czech Republic, where electricity is cheaper, in order to maintain international competitiveness.

So I must ask:

What exactly did Mr. Koizumi see when he went to Germany?

To be continued.