A record dated July 30, 2020, introducing the WiLL magazine dialogue between Yasuhiko Kamikubo and Eitaro Ogawa entitled “There Will Be No Second Wave.” The discussion presented contemporary hypotheses concerning herd immunity, re-exposure and reinfection, PCR testing, viral interference, and the proposed S, K, and G types of SARS-CoV-2.

2020-07-30
In the summer of 2020, confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan began rising again after the lifting of the state of emergency in May.
This article introduced a dialogue published at the time between Eitaro Ogawa and Yasuhiko Kamikubo, then a specially appointed professor at Kyoto University.
The dialogue advanced the hypothesis that herd immunity had already been established in Japan and that many PCR-positive cases then being detected represented re-exposure or reinfection in people who had already acquired immunity, making severe disease unlikely.
It consequently predicted that there would be no second wave.
These statements should be preserved as a record of a medical hypothesis advanced in July 2020, while being distinguished from knowledge accumulated subsequently.
By December 2020, WHO reported that seroprevalence studies indicated that the great majority of the world’s population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and opposed deliberately allowing infection to spread in order to obtain herd immunity.
Current CDC guidance states that reinfection can occur multiple times; immunity following infection generally lowers the risk of severe disease, but protection diminishes over time and severe reinfections can oc
Japan’s recorded cases also rose from 20,371 on July 9, 2020, to 45,439 on August 8, demonstrating that the subsequent course of the epidemic did not conform to the prediction that there would be no second w
The following is a faithful English translation of the original article dated July 30, 2020.
Quotation
“Those currently testing positive in mass PCR testing happen to be cases of ‘re-exposure/reinfection,’ and because they acquired immunity through their initial infection, they are extremely unlikely to deteriorate.”
Text
Those currently testing positive in mass PCR testing happen to be cases of “re-exposure/reinfection,” and because they acquired immunity through their initial infection, they are extremely unlikely to deteriorate.
The following is from a special dialogue between Eitaro Ogawa and Yasuhiko Kamikubo, a specially appointed professor at the Kyoto University Graduate School, published in this month’s issue of WiLL under the title “There Will Be No Second Wave.” *Emphasis within the text, except for headings, is mine.
Do Nothing About COVID-19 — A Groundbreaking Theory of Coronavirus
An Asymptomatic Cold
Ogawa:
Since the lifting of the state of emergency, the number of infections has risen sharply, particularly in Tokyo’s “nightlife districts” (as of July 14).
Experts and the media are reporting that a second wave of coronavirus may be coming, and many people are becoming anxious.
But looking at the figures, deaths have risen only slightly since mid-May, while the number of severe cases has continued to decline.
The damage is clearly diminishing.
In spite of that, should we continue allowing economic activity to contract?
Professor Kamikubo studied under the late Professor Takashi Uchiyama, a specialist in retrovirology, in Kyoto University’s Department of Hematology and Oncology, and for many years you have also been responsible at the university for certifying credits in immunology and clinical laboratory science.
You are, so to speak, a professional among professionals.
Will a second wave actually come?
Kamikubo:
To give the conclusion first, no.
Ogawa:
Why not?
Kamikubo:
Because many of us have already been infected with the coronavirus and are now in a state in which we have acquired immunity.
Ogawa:
What is called “herd immunity.”
Together with Professor Jun Takahashi of Kibi International University, you attribute Japan’s low number of deaths this time to that.
Kamikubo:
Yes.
Medical scientists and experts misunderstand coronaviruses.
Ever since humanity came into existence, we and viruses have continuously coexisted.
They have always existed, periodically infecting humans and then subsiding.
Ogawa:
That is the relationship between influenza and coronaviruses.
Kamikubo:
There is a term called “viral interference.”
When you are infected with a coronavirus, you do not become infected with influenza.
The reverse is also true, and this cycle has continued throughout history.
The introduction of the literature is omitted here.
Ogawa:
Influenza viruses and coronaviruses can undergo change and mutation.
Kamikubo:
They are viruses that are inherently prone to change and mutation.
To speak technically, around a virus are projections called “spikes.”
These projections fit precisely into “ACE2 receptors” on human tissue cells like a key fitting into a lock—the binding of the virus to human cells.
The human body then recognizes the virus as a foreign substance and initiates an immune response; cytokines, proteins secreted by immune-system cells, are released, producing fever and other symptoms.
With this novel coronavirus, change and mutation occurred in these “spikes,” making them fit more readily.
Ogawa:
How often does this kind of change or mutation occur?
Kamikubo:
About once every ten years, although sometimes the interval is shorter.
To take prominent examples, the Spanish flu, said to have been caused by an influenza virus, spread in 1919.
Various viruses circulated in the meantime, but ninety years later, in 2009, a novel influenza outbreak occurred.
Then, in 2019, the novel coronavirus appeared.
Ogawa:
I see.
So there is that kind of cycle.
Then what, fundamentally, are the characteristics of coronaviruses?
Kamikubo:
Put simply, they are “colds with many asymptomatic cases.”
The “initial infection” often begins in winter, with symptoms lasting for several days.
Symptoms are often milder than influenza, although persistent symptoms can sometimes occur.
Following the “initial infection,” multiple episodes of “re-exposure/reinfection” occur randomly during the year.
With “re-exposure/reinfection,” there may be a mild fever lasting around half a day, and often the person is so asymptomatic that they do not even notice it.
What we think of as a cold consists of a continuous sequence of that year’s “initial infection” followed by “re-exposure/reinfection.”
Those currently testing positive in mass PCR testing happen to be cases of “re-exposure/reinfection,” and because they acquired immunity through their initial infection, they are extremely unlikely to deteriorate.
Ogawa:
By contrast, influenza is characterized by clear symptoms such as a high fever.
Kamikubo:
That is why, when a coronavirus becomes pandemic, it is difficult to know who is infected, which makes confusion more likely.
With Ebola hemorrhagic fever, symptoms such as vomiting blood, bloody diarrhea, and subcutaneous bleeding appear, so it is immediately apparent whether a person has been infected and isolation is easier.
Ogawa:
So coronaviruses have been circulating beneath the surface all along.
Kamikubo:
Summer colds are an example.
But when you catch a cold, you do not normally undergo a PCR test.
So people simply went through life without knowing that a coronavirus was responsible.
Viral Change and Mutation
Ogawa:
With the coronavirus this time, change or mutation occurred in the spike rather than in some ordinary location in the virus.
Yet while deaths were high in Europe and the United States, deaths in Japan and other Asian countries were very low.
Why was there such a large difference in the damage?
Kamikubo:
Because Asian countries already possessed immunity to the coronavirus.
Professor Takahashi and I analyzed the characteristics of coronaviruses published by the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, GISAID, and found that there were an “S type,” the ancestral type, and a “K type,” a mutated form of the ancestral type.
These two types produced mild symptoms and had low fatality rates.
Beginning in November of last year, the S and K types spread throughout China and were regarded as little more than a somewhat unusual cold.
Around December, however, a change or mutation of the coronavirus occurred in Wuhan, producing the “G type,” and infections expanded rapidly.
When it entered Europe and the United States, it changed or mutated into a “Western G type.”
Ogawa:
So this “Western G type” caused severe pneumonia and wreaked havoc.
But Japan did not suffer damage on anything like that scale.
Kamikubo:
Because the G type spread rapidly in Wuhan, the alarmed Chinese government decided to lock down Wuhan on January 23.
At that point, there were ten million people there, including Wuhan residents and business visitors, but as soon as rumors of the lockdown spread, five million people fled Wuhan for foreign countries.
Between January 20 and February 1, approximately 340,000 people entered Japan from China on direct flights from Wuhan, according to a February 3 statement by Justice Minister Masako Mori in the House of Representatives Budget Committee.
Furthermore, Japan did not restrict travel by Chinese nationals until March 9, after the Wuhan lockdown.
Counting from November of the previous year, approximately 1.84 million Chinese tourists had entered Japan.
This brought the S and K types into Japan, and “herd immunity” had been reached among the Japanese population.
Immunity to the K type—cellular immunity—was also effective against the G type, which is why the situation did not become so severe.
Ogawa:
You have epidemiologically demonstrated a correlation in which the arrival of the S and K types caused influenza to subside rapidly in Japan.
But Taiwan imposed restrictions early.
Why, then, had immunity formed there?
Kamikubo:
When rumors of restrictions began circulating, people rushed back to Taiwan from mainland China and ASEAN countries.
It was a phenomenon similar to what happened around the Wuhan lockdown.
Taiwan, like Japan, had reached herd immunity.
Ogawa:
Was that also the reason so many deaths occurred in Europe and the United States?
Kamikubo:
The S type entered Europe and the United States sufficiently, but the K type did not enter in sufficient quantities, so they had no immunity to the G type.
As a result, a phenomenon called ADE—antibody-dependent enhancement—occurred.
Locking down Wuhan too early was the cause.
Furthermore, influenza was spreading, particularly in the United States, where 12,000 people had died.
In other words, because “viral interference” was occurring, conditions also made it difficult for the K type to enter.
Ogawa:
And Europe was the same?
Kamikubo:
Influenza was spreading there.
Countries such as Italy also imposed lockdowns rapidly, leaving little opportunity for the K type to enter.
Ogawa:
For example, about 85,000 people died in the United States between March and early May.
Yet from late May to mid-July, while confirmed infections exploded as PCR testing expanded, deaths fell sharply.
Looking at those trends, it seems impossible to think that some kind of system was not operating between the virus and humanity.
Kamikubo:
That is the strongest possible evidence that “herd immunity” had developed.
Ogawa:
Nevertheless, there has been vigorous debate and various criticisms of the “herd immunity theory.”
At the same time, as far as I know, the experts who reject it have not put forward an alternative theory.
That strikes me as unfair for scholars.
Kamikubo:
Exactly.
If they properly present verification results and then say, “The herd immunity theory is wrong; this theory is correct,” I will sincerely accept it.
But many people criticize it without evidence.
Doing Nothing Is Best
Ogawa:
What should we do about coronavirus from now on?
The numbers are rising rapidly, especially in the “nightlife districts.”
Kamikubo:
It is simply a matter of the virus entering again into the bodies of people who already acquired immunity through their initial infection.
In technical terms, it is re-exposure to the virus among previously infected people.
Depending on the timing of PCR testing, they may test positive.
But many of these people are young and already have immunity, so even if they develop a slight fever or a mildly sore throat, they will not become seriously ill.
Ogawa:
So that means…
Kamikubo:
Doing nothing is best.
Traditionally, I do not think Japan or the rest of the world ever performed PCR tests merely because someone had a cold.
When the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, there was no need to make such a huge commotion.
Ogawa:
They should simply have left it alone.
Kamikubo:
Yes.
Do not misunderstand me: as long as patients with severe pneumonia are given thorough and intensive treatment, there is no problem.
Eventually herd immunity will be reached and coronavirus will subside.
If anything, Wuhan’s problem was that it did not conceal the spread of infection [laughs].
Ogawa:
Until now, people have said that China’s culture of concealment allowed the infection to spread worldwide, but you are saying that was not the case.
Kamikubo:
Yes.
People suddenly collapsed in the streets, however, and the authorities became more alarmed than necessary.
Those images spread around the world, and the entire world overreacted.
Once airports are closed, cities have little choice but to lock down.
Ogawa:
So in your view, the world behaved unnaturally in the process of reaching herd immunity.
How do you think the novel coronavirus will develop from here?
Kamikubo:
The mutations of the “spike” will finish by December, so the mutated virus will disappear.
The ancestral virus will then once again emerge from hosts such as bats and coexist with humans.
Then, roughly every ten years, another mutation of the spike will occur.
There can, however, be variations of several years in the timing of mutations beginning from the S type.
Ogawa:
Then, according to your assessment, there will be no second wave, and next year’s Tokyo Olympics can be held without problems?
Kamikubo:
All travel restrictions should be lifted.
There is absolutely no need to restrict domestic travel either.
Trying forcibly to stop coronavirus infection is what causes things to go wrong.
Indeed, if restrictions were kept in place indefinitely, it might even cause a second wave in Japan.
Ogawa:
Professor Kamikubo’s views have also reached the ruling parties.
Perhaps in response, on July 11 Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga said, “It would not be an exaggeration to say that this problem—the increase in infections—is overwhelmingly a ‘Tokyo problem.’ It is becoming a problem centered on Tokyo.”
I think that was an extremely suggestive statement.
To expand on his remarks, novel coronavirus has now become a political problem: testing is increased enormously, the number of infections appears to rise, and politicians unnecessarily fuel anxiety by saying, “We are worried, we are worried.”
Kamikubo:
Even elderly people do not need to be afraid.
If they have been going outside, there is no way they could have avoided exposure to coronavirus, so they have unquestionably acquired immunity.
To be continued.