Originally published on July 9, 2019.
This passage, based on a dialogue between Takashi Tsutsumi and Kōshi Kubo published in the August issue of Hanada, examines both the significance and the risks of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s mediation diplomacy toward Iran.
It discusses why both the United States and Iran sought Japan’s mediation, Japan’s diplomatic position under the Trump administration, Japan’s national interests surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the extent to which Reiwa-era Japanese diplomacy could assert a real presence in international politics.
It is a thought-provoking piece for considering both the realism of Abe’s diplomacy and whether Japan can truly help lead the world.

2019-07-09
Abe’s predecessor Obama would make a displeased face whenever Abe met Putin or Xi Jinping, and would interfere in one way or another.
But Trump, I hear, does not make even one displeased face.
The following is from the serialized dialogue between Takashi Tsutsumi and Kōshi Kubo published in the August issue of the monthly magazine Hanada under the title, “I Am Post-Abe”? How Foolish Edano Is.
Like Hiroshi Furuta, I knew absolutely nothing about Mr. Takashi Tsutsumi until August five years ago, when I was still subscribing to the Asahi Shimbun.
When I first learned of him, for some reason I wondered if perhaps—
so I searched, and as I expected, he was indeed a senior alumnus of the school I love eternally.
I am proud that he is my senior.
Prefatory text omitted.
A Key Player in International Politics
Editorial Department
Prime Minister Abe visited Iran, but…
Tsutsumi
This was because he was asked by both the United States and Iran to mediate.
In May, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif came to Japan and met Abe.
Usually, people come to Japan to ask for money（笑）, but that was not the case this time.
Just then, Iran was in the very middle of a standoff with the United States.
The United States had moved a strike group centered on the aircraft carrier Eibraimu from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, while in response there had been a bombing near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, and in the Strait of Hormuz four tankers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, countries hostile to Iran, were subjected to destructive attacks.
It was an extraordinary situation.
Trump and Iranian President Rouhani both said, “We do not intend to go to war.
If possible, we want to resolve this through talks,” but the situation was so tense that an accidental trigger could easily have led to war.
It was at such a time that Zarif came.
He came to ask Abe to mediate with Trump.
Trump’s visit to Japan came after that, and Trump in turn proposed that Abe visit Iran and asked him to mediate.
What I have heard is that Abe’s predecessor Obama would make a displeased face whenever Abe met Putin or Xi Jinping, and would interfere in one way or another.
But Trump, I hear, does not make even one displeased face.
From Trump’s point of view, he probably thinks of Abe as a card he can use, and believes he is letting him move freely without attaching various complaints.
Trump is a one-man manager, and in his own way he understands how to move people.
By contrast, Obama at most served as editor of the Harvard student newspaper, and does not understand how to move people.
Before Abe’s visit to Iran, Al Jazeera reported that “future developments are waiting on Abe.”
Among Japan’s prime ministers and foreign ministers up to now, has there ever been a politician who was asked by both sides to play such a role and was expected so highly?
He is truly a key player in international politics, and that is remarkable.
Kubo
Reiwa-era Japanese diplomacy is beginning to transform itself.
That recognition is also reflected in the Liberal Democratic Party’s Upper House election pledges for the summer, which placed diplomacy and defense as the first pillar and emphasized that “Japan will lead the world” in solving global-scale issues such as trade and the environment.
But even in this mediation, if it does not go well, the consequences will likewise be considerable, so Abe has a difficult burden.
Tsutsumi
It is a difficult role.
In the first place, one cannot serve as a mediator in a quarrel without strength.
Japan has no military power.
And yet the fact that both sides requested Abe’s mediation can only be attributed to his presence and stature.
That said, about the only thing he can do is lead both sides to the table for talks.
For now, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is refusing, saying that talks with the United States are poison.
Kubo
Abe, too, must have accepted this mediation only after already factoring in that it would not be easy at all, and what the domestic and international reactions would be if it failed.
It is certainly true that through the deepening of the Japan-U.S. alliance, the foundation of Reiwa-era Japanese diplomacy has become more solid.
At the same time, however, it is also true that Trump’s diplomacy, which appears to be a destroyer of the existing international order, is a threat to other allied countries.
For Abe, unless he shows a stance that deepens the Japan-U.S. alliance while at the same time taking one step of distance from it, he will no longer be able to fulfill a mediating role in international politics.
In particular, Japan and Iran have had a friendly relationship for nearly ninety years, and Iran is an important supplier of Japan’s oil energy.
Therefore, Japan absolutely wants to avoid any situation in which the Strait of Hormuz, through which 80 percent of Japan-bound tankers pass, is closed.
Even so, as long as the United States and Iran remain in a state of military tension on the verge of armed conflict, Japan must secure other sources of supply, beginning with the United States, a major oil and natural gas energy power, in preparation for any closure of the strait.
If Abe now takes on the role of Trump’s errand-runner and creates a debt of gratitude, then Trump will probably give priority to Japan in return—
presumably Abe has such calculations in his head.
Originally, that sort of role had been undertaken by Britain, America’s long-standing partner, but in its current condition it can no longer manage it.
To be continued.