Published on July 12, 2019.
Based on a special feature by Abiru Rui in the monthly magazine WiLL, this chapter discusses the possibility that the first-ever U.S.–North Korea summit could become a turning point determining Japan’s fate.
Through the abduction issue, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, China’s and Russia’s policies toward North Korea, and Kim Jong-un’s meeting with Xi Jinping, it examines the geopolitical destiny of the Korean Peninsula.

July 12, 2019.
“That is a typical response of people from the Korean Peninsula,” one diplomat said.
Even if they usually bluster and put on airs, once they are cornered, they run about in confusion seeking a powerful protector.
This is a chapter I published on May 20, 2018.
The following is from a special feature published in this month’s issue of the monthly magazine WiLL, titled “Enough of the Moritomo-Kake Scandal: ‘Mori, Kake, and the Daily Reports’ Are Spells to Kill Abe,” by Abiru Rui, editorial writer of the Sankei Shimbun.
In Asahi editorials, Akie’s name appeared an astonishing 50 times in one year!
Are you trying to curse her to death?
Japan’s Fate Will Be Decided.
In May or June, the first-ever U.S.–North Korea summit is scheduled to take place.
This is highly likely to become a turning point that decides Japan’s fate.
President Trump, as Prime Minister Abe has reminded him repeatedly, will surely mention the abduction issue.
Depending on the circumstances, the abductees may even return home.
On the other hand, Kim Jong-un is insisting on the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
His father, Kim Jong-il, also referred to the same thing, but it is not the denuclearization of “North Korea,” but of the “Korean Peninsula.”
The United States follows a policy of “neither confirming nor denying” the deployment of nuclear weapons.
Therefore, “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” means the withdrawal of U.S. forces in South Korea from South Korea.
If the U.S. military disappears, it is not clear whether that would immediately lead to the unification of North and South Korea.
However, in whatever form, the 38th parallel would come down to the Tsushima Strait.
According to what I heard from a senior official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China apparently wants unification led by the South rather than unification led by the North.
If Kim Jong-un stands at the top, he has backbone in diplomacy and is difficult to handle.
But if it is President Moon Jae-in, he will listen to anything China says.
Kim Jong-un, in order to avoid war with the United States, went to meet Xi Jinping, whom he had so thoroughly disliked.
He even showed a posture of taking notes in front of Xi Jinping, demonstrating the courtesy of a vassal.
“That is a typical response of people from the Korean Peninsula,” one diplomat said.
Even if they usually bluster and put on airs, once they are cornered, they run about in confusion seeking a powerful protector.
And they try to gain peace of mind by hiding in the shadow of the strong.
That is the fate of a peninsula state.
From now on, not only China but also Russia will become involved with North Korea.
Russia also has a strong consciousness that the Korean Peninsula, especially North Korea, is half its own vassal state.
Since Russia’s relations with the United States have worsened, beginning with the Syrian issue, Russia too would like to keep the North Korea card carefully in hand.
According to a senior government official, “There is a sense that President Putin is inwardly enjoying the fact that Kim Jong-un is troubling the United States by conducting nuclear tests and missile launches.”
Therefore, there is not no possibility that Russia will leap over North Korea and harass the United States directly.
From North Korea’s point of view, if Russia and China confront the United States on its behalf, it becomes easier to begin a new diplomatic game.
This article continues.