Published on July 26, 2019. This essay examines the post–House of Councillors election seat distribution and argues that constitutional revision cannot depend solely on the traditional Liberal Democratic Party–Komeito–Ishin framework. It emphasizes the need to seek cooperation with other opposition forces and values Prime Minister Abe’s determination to put a revised Constitution into effect in 2020 as a response to Japan’s increasingly severe international environment.

July 26, 2019.
This must be the Prime Minister’s resolve precisely because he fully realizes the severity of the international situation.
I value that resolve greatly.
The following is a continuation of the previous chapter.
The key to moving Komeito.
How is Japan to be defended?
How are constitutional revision and reform to be advanced?
Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is being forced to change its strategy.
As every newspaper carried in large headlines, the Liberal Democratic Party won 57 seats, and together with Komeito’s 14 seats, the ruling coalition won 71 seats.
Including the seats not up for election, the two parties together hold 141 seats, and even if the 16 seats of Nippon Ishin no Kai are added, the total is 157 seats.
Two-thirds of the total 245 seats is 164.
That means they are short by at least seven seats.
Even assuming that the LDP, Komeito, and Ishin all cooperate in working toward constitutional revision, the numbers are still insufficient.
And yet, even under these difficult circumstances, Komeito’s Mr. Yamaguchi appears, no matter how one looks at it, to be negative toward constitutional revision.
Regarding this situation, Ishibashi Fumito, former political editor of the Sankei Shimbun, says the following.
“We should no longer be bound by the formula that the constitutional revision forces equal the LDP, Komeito, and Ishin.
It is time to shift to a strategy of forming constitutional revision forces through a cooperative framework with other opposition parties, excluding the Communist Party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the Social Democratic Party.
I believe that this approach offers a greater possibility of realizing constitutional revision than trying to secure two-thirds with the LDP and Komeito alone.”
If the LDP’s 113 seats are added to the Democratic Party for the People’s 21 seats, Ishin’s 16 seats, and the three pro-ruling-party independents, the total becomes 153 seats.
Since it is inconceivable that all members of the Democratic Party for the People would cooperate with the LDP, this is an overly optimistic number.
Even so, it is important for the LDP to shift its center of gravity in this way toward forces other than Komeito.
Showing through actual action that Komeito is not the only possible partner will, as a result, become the key to moving Komeito.
After the election campaign, Prime Minister Abe responded to interviews from various media outlets and said, “I want to accomplish constitutional revision in 2020.”
In response to this usual statement of determination, Kasuya Takayuki, chief commentator at Nippon Television, asked a follow-up question: did this mean that he wanted the revised Constitution to come into effect in 2020?
The Prime Minister answered, “Yes.”
Sasaki Mie, political editor of the Sankei Shimbun, reported in an article on page one on the 22nd that on the evening of the 21st, the Prime Minister met with Deputy Prime Minister Aso Taro at his private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo, and said, “I intend to carry out constitutional revision,” and that they shared the recognition that “the coming year will be the decisive year.”
This must be the Prime Minister’s resolve precisely because he fully realizes the severity of the international situation.
I value that resolve greatly.