Published on October 29, 2019. Citing an essay by Yoichi Shimada in the monthly magazine Will, this article examines statements by Junichiro Koizumi and Toru Hashimoto on nuclear power and energy policy, and discusses the importance of driving force, responsibility, judgment, and energy security in politics.

October 29, 2019.
It would be impossible to take seriously a thought that occurred to a man nearing eighty, when he himself admits that he had been an “idiot” until nearly the age of seventy.
The following is from an essay by Yoichi Shimada, published under the title “Between Driving Force and Irresponsibility” in the opening serialized column of the monthly magazine Will, which was released the other day.
A politician must have clear principles and an excellent sense of balance, while at the same time possessing the power to break through.
Unless he is the type who burns with fighting spirit in the face of difficulty and does not fear an exchange of blows, he will probably be unable to accomplish anything in the political arena.
On the other hand, a politician who has driving force but little sense of responsibility and lacks insight is like a blindfolded heavyweight boxer.
If his punch happens to hit the enemy, that is fine, but no one knows when he may knock down an ally, and he may even step on a baby sleeping at his feet.
Typical examples of the latter are probably former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and former Osaka Governor and Mayor Toru Hashimoto.
In a lecture in Kansai this summer, Koizumi, as usual, cheerfully asserted that “Japan has surplus electricity even without nuclear power,” while saying, “Until that accident in Fukushima occurred, I had no doubts about nuclear power.”
He raised his voice enthusiastically, mixing in Kansai dialect, saying, “At present, 15 percent of electricity is supplied by solar and wind power and the like,” and “I was an idiot for being deceived by the cause of nuclear power.
Now that I know that, let us move forward with natural energy,” and he left the venue in a good mood.
However, as Koizumi himself admits, the ratio of power generation currently supplied by solar and wind power is only 15 percent, and moreover, they cannot become baseload power sources capable of stable supply.
Most of the remaining 85 percent depends on thermal power generation, that is, oil and natural gas.
In Japan’s case, almost all oil is imported, and 87 percent of it comes from the Middle East.
At present, tensions are rising between Saudi Arabia and Iran across the Persian Gulf, and if a full-scale war breaks out, Middle Eastern oil would be cut off instantly.
Natural gas is also almost entirely imported.
Of that, 23 percent comes from the Middle East, so the bias is not as great as with oil, but there is no guarantee that the interrupted portion could be filled elsewhere.
In this respect, Japan’s circumstances differ greatly from those of the United States, whose Middle East dependence is 22 percent for oil and 0 percent for natural gas.
Everyone knows, without needing Koizumi to say it, that nuclear power involves risks.
Any laxity on the management side must be corrected strictly.
However, although he must have let it go in one ear and out the other, the people who once lectured Prime Minister Koizumi on nuclear power must also have strongly emphasized the above-mentioned perspective of energy security.
It would be impossible to take seriously a thought that occurred to a man nearing eighty, when he himself admits that he had been an “idiot” until nearly the age of seventy.
Hashimoto, when he was once governor and mayor of Osaka, put on a brave show by saying, “Restarting nuclear power plants is impermissible when no one has confirmed their safety.”
He also declared, “If such a thing is allowed, the Democratic Party administration must be brought down.”
Yet in 2012, the moment a power shortage became a reality in Osaka during the intense summer heat, he suddenly reversed himself and shouted that the nuclear power plants in Fukui Prefecture should be restarted immediately.
Then, after the peak of summer electricity consumption had passed, he reversed himself again and argued that the nuclear plants should be stopped immediately.
There is such a past.
Restarting nuclear power plants and building or expanding them requires enormous political energy.
They are not things that can be easily started or stopped for the convenience of pandering politicians.
It is no wonder that voices of criticism arose, saying that this was a thoughtless wavering on the same level as former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s course on the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station in Okinawa, from “outside the prefecture at the very least,” to “I have learned about deterrence.
There is no option but Henoko,” and then back again to “Henoko is no good,” and so on.
Looking back on that time, Hashimoto said, “The biggest point of argument was whether there would be enough electricity without nuclear power or not.”
“Then Tetsuya Iida, a member of the Osaka Prefecture and City Energy Strategy Council, who had continued saying that there would be enough electricity even without nuclear power, suffered a crushing defeat at the government’s Supply and Demand Verification Committee.
In the end, the conclusion was that without nuclear power there would be absolutely not enough electricity.
From my perspective, it was like, ‘Huh?’
Mr. Iida and former Ministry of International Trade and Industry bureaucrat Shigeaki Koga had kept telling me that there would be enough electricity even if the nuclear plants did not operate, and therefore there was no need to restart the nuclear plants at this point.
I had built the execution process for blocking the restart of nuclear power plants on that premise.
If the result had been that we were only a little short, I would have held firm, but the result was that we were completely short,” he said quite nonchalantly.
In Hashimoto’s case too, as with Koizumi, movements in international politics such as the situation in the Middle East are not in his field of vision at all.
Hashimoto willingly jumps into the vortex of political struggle and displays combative words and deeds with an air of conviction.
But in reality, he is saying that he had merely been made to dance by some frivolous commentators.
“Huh?” is our line.
If articulate and fearless figures such as Koizumi and Hashimoto can find meaningful themes and good brains, and use their innate driving force in a positive direction, that will become a great weapon for opening Japan’s future.
However, if they themselves forever lack the ability to distinguish good brains from bad brains, there is nothing that can be done.
The general public has no choice but to possess the discerning eye to judge their words and deeds severely.