On March 7, 2020, continuing from the previous chapter, I introduce Yoshiko Sakurai’s column in Shukan Shincho. In response to reports that Chinese authorities were concealing the spread of the Wuhan virus, the Chinese media outlet “21Caijing” immediately followed up and reported that hospital construction in Guangdong Province had been halted. This swift reaction shows that China is monitoring international reporting on the Wuhan virus in every detail. Akio Yaita’s explanation of the “Zha Cai Index” also reveals how unreliable Chinese statistics truly are.

March 7, 2020
At the very least, what can be read from this swift reaction is that the Chinese side is monitoring every corner of international reporting on the Wuhan virus.
The following is a continuation of the previous chapter.
The “Zha Cai Index.”
In reporting that the Chinese authorities were concealing the spread of infection by the Wuhan virus,
I reported that the infection was also spreading to Guangdong Province,
and, as one piece of evidence, that prefabricated detention facilities with iron bars, which could hardly be called hospitals, were being constructed in a rush.
I also gave the same information on February 23 on Fuji Television’s morning program “Nichiyo Hodo THE PRIME.”
But the Chinese media outlet “21Caijing,” which I had cited, immediately conducted “additional reporting”
and reported that the hospital construction had been halted.
Was this an attempt to deny the spread of infection in Guangdong Province?
At the very least, what can be read from this swift reaction is that
the Chinese side is monitoring every corner of international reporting on the Wuhan virus.
It also means that we must not forget that “21Caijing,” which had been thought of as an “independent media outlet,”
is, naturally enough,
in the hands of the Chinese government.
Akio Yaita, deputy editor of the Foreign News Department of the Sankei Shimbun, who grew up in China and knows Chinese society thoroughly,
taught me the term
“Zha Cai Index”
with regard to the danger of Chinese information.
Roughly speaking, it means the following.
That Chinese statistics are difficult to believe
has been publicly acknowledged even by Premier Li Keqiang, who is responsible for the Chinese economy.
All the numbers that come up from below, such as from local governments,
show tendencies that please the central government,
and if one trusts such figures, one will make a mistaken judgment.
So Li and others focused on the relationship between migrant workers and zha cai.
An increase in migrant workers who work at the bottom of society
means that the real economy is active.
How can one examine the increase or decrease of migrant workers?
They are poor, many of them are men,
and their meals consist of heaping bowls of rice with plenty of zha cai as a side dish.
Therefore, on the logic that an increase in zha cai sales means
an increase in migrant workers,
more active production activity,
and an expansion of the economy,
the Chinese government began to use zha cai sales as a reference.
However, Mr. Yaita laughs that what followed was very China-like.
“When the Zha Cai Index was reported a few years ago, local governments began inflating their reports of zha cai sales. In the end, it was back to square one.”
It is said that the figures that most accurately show the actual state of the Chinese economy
are calculated by combining, according to a certain method, the year-on-year growth rates of

1. medium- and long-term loan balances,
2. electricity consumption,
   and
3. railway freight volume.
   Mr. Yaita also questions this point.
   “Local governments, in order to be recognized somehow, create the numbers that the central government wants to hear. Even with basic statistics, if local governments judge that the central government is paying attention to them, they will naturally tamper with them.”
   This section continues.