This article examines the real reason behind the falling approval ratings of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
Drawing on Rui Abiru’s Sankei Shimbun column, it argues that the decline was not merely caused by the scandal involving Takashi Takai, but by the party’s conduct from late January to March 2020, when it appeared to prioritize the cherry blossom-viewing party and the Moritomo Gakuen issue over the approaching coronavirus crisis.
It also discusses Tetsuro Fukuyama’s misreading of public sentiment, the rise of Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the irony that the CDP has become one of the strongest forces indirectly supporting the Abe administration.

April 23, 2020
From around the end of January to March this year, as the coronavirus crisis was approaching, the Constitutional Democratic Party behaved in the Diet as if the cherry blossom-viewing party hosted by the prime minister and the Moritomo Gakuen issue were more important than the crisis itself.
The following is from Rui Abiru’s column published in today’s Sankei Shimbun, under the title, “The Truth and Falsehood of the Decline in Support for the CDP.”
Rui Abiru is one of the finest reporters working today.
They do not understand at all.
Or perhaps they cannot now deny the political methods to which they have clung for so long, and are averting their eyes from reality.
When I heard the words spoken by Tetsuro Fukayama, secretary-general of the Constitutional Democratic Party, at his press conference on the 21st, I could not help saying aloud, “This is hopeless.”
A reporter asked Fukuyama why the CDP’s party support rate was trending downward in opinion polls conducted by various media organizations, and he offered the following analysis.
“I believe the reason the support rate fell in this phase was the scandal involving Representative Takai.
I want us to brace ourselves so that the support rate will quickly recover and turn upward.”
He was referring to the report by Shukan Bunshun that Takashi Takai, a House of Representatives member who had belonged to the Constitutional Democratic Party, but was later expelled, had gone out amusing himself at adult-entertainment establishments in a busy district even after the declaration of a state of emergency had been issued under the revised Act on Special Measures for Novel Influenza and New Infectious Diseases Preparedness and Response as part of measures against the novel coronavirus.
But Fukuyama’s explanation does not hold together.
First of all, the Bunshun report appeared in the April 23 issue released on the 16th, but the decline in the CDP’s support rate had already been conspicuous before that.
The lowest since the party’s founding.
In the joint opinion poll conducted by the Sankei Shimbun and FNN, Fuji News Network, on the 11th and 12th, the CDP’s support rate fell sharply to 3.7 percent from the previous 7.7 percent, reaching its lowest level since the party’s founding.
Meanwhile, the support rate for Nippon Ishin no Kai rose from the previous 3.8 percent to 5.2 percent, making it the top opposition party.
In addition, in the opinion poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun one week later, on the 18th and 19th, the CDP’s support rate fell to 5 percent, from 9 percent in the previous poll, and was overtaken by Nippon Ishin no Kai, which rose to 6 percent from 4 percent.
It was the first time in a Mainichi poll that the CDP’s support rate had fallen below that of Nippon Ishin no Kai.
Furthermore, in the Asahi Shimbun poll conducted on the 18th and 19th, the CDP also lost one point and remained at 5 percent.
It is true that the Mainichi and Asahi polls came after the Bunshun report, but Takai had not held a major post in the Constitutional Democratic Party, nor can he be described as highly well known.
Would he really have had a major effect on the party’s support rate?
Newspapers and television did not cover the matter in a particularly major way, and it is unreasonable to blame the fall in support on Takai.
Even though the approval rating of the Shinzo Abe Cabinet also fell by several points, expectations have not gathered around the Constitutional Democratic Party.
On the contrary, it is being abandoned.
Cherry blossoms rather than coronavirus.
Why is that?
It is probably because from around the end of January to March this year, as the coronavirus crisis was approaching, the Constitutional Democratic Party behaved in the Diet as if the cherry blossom-viewing party hosted by the prime minister and the Moritomo Gakuen issue were more important than the crisis itself.
Fukuyama himself said the following at the House of Councillors Budget Committee on March 4.
“Prime Minister, you may not like it, but I will ask about the cherry blossom-viewing party.
If there is time left, I will also deal with coronavirus measures.”
In fact, Fukuyama did ask questions about coronavirus measures, but what would the public think on hearing such a manner of speaking?
It would be only natural if people took it as meaning that he was prioritizing unnecessary and non-urgent questions, from which nothing would come anyway, in order to harass Prime Minister Abe.
Meanwhile, Nippon Ishin no Kai, which had expressed a sense of crisis from an early stage by advocating the inclusion of emergency provisions in the Constitution, improved its evaluation.
“Even people who are not conservatives have begun saying that the Constitutional Democratic Party is no good at all because it only complains.
Even with regard to the uniform 100,000-yen payment to citizens, they ask whether the party will complain about the government whether it does it or not.”
A senior official of the Liberal Democratic Party smiled inwardly as he said this.
If it does not change as it is, the Constitutional Democratic Party will, ironically, continue to be the “supplementary force” that supports the Abe administration more powerfully than anyone else.
Editorial writer and political department editor.